Baku: On March 13, the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia announced a mutual agreement on the text of the ongoing peace agreement, marking a significant step in the diplomatic dialogue between the two countries. The agreement indicates that Armenia has acceded to the final demands put forth by Azerbaijan within the draft peace agreement.
According to Anadolu Agency, Azerbaijan's demands included altering two specific articles of the 17-article text. The first change involved the removal of the EU monitoring mission stationed on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. The second demand called for a joint application to the OSCE to terminate the mandate of the Minsk Group, initially established to address the long-standing Karabakh issue.
Despite this agreement on the peace text, the actual signing of the agreement remains uncertain. The Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs has stated that changes are required to the Armenian Constitution, and a joint application must be submitted to terminate the Minsk Group's mandate before the agreement can be signed. Azerbaijan emphasized its readiness to engage in further bilateral dialogue to address other key issues related to normalization between the two nations.
The dialogue surrounding the peace agreement has been a focal point for experts and politicians in Azerbaijan, with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev frequently addressing key issues. These include opening the Zangezur Corridor, preparing the Armenian community for peace, facilitating the return of West Azerbaijanis expelled from Armenia, disarming Armenia's border areas with Azerbaijan, securing an apology for past massacres, and obtaining compensation for the occupation.
While Armenia has expressed willingness to join Azerbaijan in applying for the dissolution of the Minsk Group, it insists on maintaining the EU mission at the border until the peace agreement is finalized. This stance indicates that Azerbaijan's demands have not been fully satisfied, as concrete actions from Armenia are anticipated before the agreement can be finalized.
The situation is further complicated by Armenia's military activities and revisionist policies, which pose a threat to regional peace. From March 16 to 21, the Armenian army violated the ceasefire multiple times. Following the Second Karabakh War, Armenia has increased its military budget significantly and acquired offensive weapons from countries like France and India. The ongoing influence of revisionist demands was highlighted during the 35th Congress of the Dashnaksutyun (ARF), where various strategic priorities were outlined, including the promotion of national integration around the Karabakh agenda and the strengthening of Armenia's military.
The Armenian government's denial of responsibilities concerning the Zangezur Corridor and the right of return for Western Azerbaijanis remains an obstacle to normalization. Azerbaijan has nearly completed its portion of the Zangezur Corridor, with construction of the Turkish section set to begin soon. However, Armenia opposes this initiative, proposing an alternative "Crossroads for Peace" project, which lacks support from Azerbaijan and Turkey.
The persistence of Armenia's revisionist demands and military escalation undermines the normalization process. The return of Azerbaijanis expelled from Armenia is considered crucial for peace, but Armenia has consistently rejected this demand. Additionally, constitutional changes in Armenia, necessary for the peace agreement, are unlikely to occur before a proposed referendum in 2026 or 2027.
In summary, Armenia's past occupation of Azerbaijani territories and its current stance are significant barriers to achieving lasting peace. While Armenia attempts to position itself as a peace-seeking party, true peace requires addressing outstanding issues and continued cooperation between Azerbaijan and Turkey to reshape the region's geopolitical landscape.