Jerusalem: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government is on the brink of collapse following the withdrawal of two ultra-Orthodox parties from the ruling coalition. The Agudat Yisrael faction, which holds three seats in the 120-seat Knesset, exited the coalition due to its dissatisfaction with the government's inability to pass a bill exempting ultra-Orthodox Jews, known as Haredi, from military service. This move came shortly after the 4-seat Degel HaTorah faction also left the government.
According to Anadolu Agency, the United Torah Judaism (UTJ) bloc, of which both factions are part, contributed seven of the coalition's 68 seats in the Knesset. Additionally, the Shas Party, another ultra-Orthodox party with 11 seats, is reportedly planning to leave the coalition soon. The governing coalition requires at least 61 seats to maintain its majority in the Knesset.
Ultra-Orthodox parties have long advocated for legislation that exempts Haredi men from Israel's compulsory military service, a stance that has met increasing resistance from various government factions and the broader public. Netanyahu now faces several possible scenarios as he navigates this political impasse.
One option for Netanyahu is to wait for the Knesset's summer recess, scheduled to begin in late July and extend until October 2025. During this time, the government could function as a minority government but would lack the authority to pass new legislation. Alternatively, Netanyahu could attempt to pass the contentious bill to exempt Haredi Jews from military service to regain the support of the ultra-Orthodox parties, though this would likely provoke backlash from opposition parties.
Should the crisis worsen, other far-right parties might follow suit and exit the coalition. Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, leading the 6-seat Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) Party, has previously threatened to destabilize the government if a ceasefire deal with Gaza is reached. Similarly, the 8-seat Religious Zionism Party, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, has been advocating for the annexation of the occupied West Bank and might undermine the government by withdrawing.
Netanyahu could also seek alliances with non-coalition parties such as Benny Gantz's Blue and White Party and Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid Party. These parties hold a combined 31 seats in the Knesset but have expressed reluctance to align with Netanyahu due to his ongoing corruption trials.
Finally, if all else fails, Netanyahu may concede defeat and call for early elections. However, he is unlikely to pursue this option without securing a political victory that would help him maintain immunity in his corruption cases. Netanyahu faces charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, which could result in imprisonment if convicted.
Amidst these political tensions, the Israeli military continues its offensive in Gaza, which has led to significant casualties among Palestinians. The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.