Dhaka: A year has passed since the conclusion of Sheikh Hasina's 15-year tenure, and Bangladesh's interim government, under the leadership of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus, is actively reshaping its foreign policy. This recalibration reflects cautious optimism amidst a shifting regional environment, according to analysts.
According to Anadolu Agency, Thomas Kean, a senior consultant on Myanmar and Bangladesh with the International Crisis Group, described the interim government's foreign policy as one of "rebalancing." Under Hasina's administration, Bangladesh fostered a strong alignment with India, but tensions with the United States grew, largely due to human rights concerns. This close relationship with New Delhi also limited Bangladesh's engagement with China and kept ties with Pakistan largely inactive.
Kean noted a significant shift following Hasina's exit, as India chose not to normalize relations with the interim government. This decision has prompted Bangladesh to explore deeper collaboration with China's and Pakistan's, India's traditional rivals. Lin Minwang, a professor at Fudan University, corroborated this view, emphasizing the caretaker government's substantial policy shift away from its previous unwavering proximity to India.
Mubashar Hasan, an adjunct research fellow at Western Sydney University, highlighted some continuity despite these changes. He pointed out that while there is a noticeable shift towards China, China's relations with Bangladesh were strong even during Hasina's leadership. The key change, according to Hasan, lies in the strained relations with India and a closer alignment with Pakistan.
Hasina, who fled to India on August 5, 2024, after a student-led uprising toppled her government, faces charges of crimes against humanity, accusations she denies.
Strengthening ties with China has been a priority for Yunus, demonstrated by his first state visit to China in March. During this visit, he secured $2.1 billion in Chinese investments aimed at bolstering Bangladesh's economy and infrastructure. Kean noted that this marked a significant shift in Bangladesh's diplomatic landscape, providing China with a strategic opening in Dhaka that was previously unavailable.
Joshua Kurlantzick of the Council on Foreign Relations observed that while Hasina maintained good relations with Beijing, Yunus has further strengthened these ties. Hasan emphasized China's long-term interest in Bangladesh, acknowledging the demand for infrastructure development and China's non-interference policy in domestic affairs.
Meanwhile, the historically close relationship between Dhaka and New Delhi has reached its lowest point in years. Kean suggested that both India and Bangladesh need to work towards a constructive partnership, predicting a potential reset following Bangladesh's upcoming elections. Hasan pointed out India's past involvement in Bangladesh's internal affairs, which has shaped public perception. He believes Yunus' interim government is moving towards a more balanced relationship with India.
Bangladesh's relations with the United States have also improved under Yunus. Kean attributed this to the Democratic administration's support and Yunus' connections with key US figures. Despite the strong trade relationship, experts caution about the unpredictability of the Trump administration's policies.
Speculation about Bangladesh forming a strategic bloc with China and Pakistan remains unfounded, according to analysts. Kurlantzick and Kean both agreed that such an alignment would cross a 'red line' for India and that current moves are more about strategic rebalancing in response to India's hostile sentiment.
Yunus' main focus remains on restoring order in Bangladesh and preparing for democratic elections, with foreign policy adjustments being a part of this broader agenda.