Tel aviv: As Israel advances its strategy to reoccupy Gaza City, analysts caution that the initiative might lead to the forced displacement of up to 800,000 Palestinians, potentially subjecting the area to conditions akin to a 'concentration camp.' Critics argue that this development represents a perilous escalation in Israel's conflict with Gaza.
According to Anadolu Agency, experts suggest that the policy is less focused on defeating Hamas and more on engineering mass displacement. This strategy appears to leverage the threat of invasion in negotiations and aims to extend the conflict, which some believe serves Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's political interests. Ori Goldberg, an Israeli analyst, notes that the plan operates on two levels: fulfilling internal political needs and pursuing a sanctioned policy of forced removal.
Goldberg highlights that the Israeli government has approved a plan that effectively amounts to ethnic cleansing of Gaza, encouraging what they term as immigration, while continuing to attack Palestinians. Even if total removal of Palestinians is unattainable, Goldberg warns that preparations are in progress, pointing to statements by Israel's defense minister about concentrating Palestinians in Rafah, describing it as a 'concentration camp' for hundreds of thousands.
Mohammad Magadli, an analyst for Israel's Channel 12 and head of news for Nas Radio, underscores the immense military cost of reoccupying Gaza City, which would involve displacing approximately 800,000 Palestinians. The Israeli army, he notes, has expressed concerns over logistical challenges and a manpower shortage, making the operation implausible.
According to Magadli, the core objective is to use the threat of reoccupation to coax Hamas back into indirect negotiations. Netanyahu's declared aim is to preserve his government, but the underlying goal is to leverage negotiations with Hamas to secure a partial deal for returning Israeli captives.
Robert Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in defense studies at King's College London, emphasizes the Israeli army's opposition to capturing Gaza City, citing risks to hostages and the potential for civilian casualties. Past Israeli operations have resulted in hostage fatalities, either through friendly fire or provocation.
Pinfold also argues that the plan serves Netanyahu's political agenda more than Israel's strategic interests. By maintaining a state of conflict, Netanyahu can defer his trial and avoid inquiries into government failures.
All three experts stress the logistical demands of the plan. Magadli estimates that it would require mobilizing 200,000 reservists, a significant number compared to previous mobilizations. Goldberg suggests the Israeli army might highlight these obstacles to demonstrate the impracticality of the government's objectives.
Pinfold observes widening divisions between Israel's civilian leadership and the military, noting tension over the proposed strategy. Netanyahu's vision of transferring governance of Gaza to Arab states faces obstacles, as these states require commitments to a two-state solution and Palestinian statehood. Pinfold argues that Netanyahu's long-term goal is to render Gaza uninhabitable, prompting Arab states to intervene and relinquish their demands on Israel.