Amman: As climate change reduces rainfall across the Middle East, communities are increasingly turning to groundwater for agricultural irrigation. Combined with the region's fragile soil structure, this is leading to the formation of massive sinkholes.
According to Anadolu Agency, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are among the regions most affected by climate change. In Lebanon, which faces 'extremely high water stress,' the average annual temperature has increased by 0.11 degrees Celsius each decade, with a significant decrease in rainfall. Similarly, Iran has experienced a 2-degree Celsius rise in temperature since the 1960s, alongside a 20% reduction in rainfall over the past 20 years, leading to altered precipitation patterns.
Jordan is also grappling with high water stress, anticipating a 17% decrease in rainfall by the mid-century. Iraq recorded its second driest period in four decades during the 2020-2021 rainfall season, drastically reducing water flow in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. The result is a severe threat to agriculture, with 70% of Iraq's farmland at risk of complete degradation.
The situation is exacerbated in Turkey, where temperatures are projected to rise by up to 2 degrees Celsius by 2040, while regional rainfall is expected to decrease by 200 millimeters. In Syria, a temperature rise of 1.2 degrees Celsius could make severe droughts a frequent event, occurring once every decade.
Decreasing water resources due to climate change are leading to increased use of groundwater in the region, especially for agriculture. This results in the depletion of underground water and disrupts the natural balance. In areas with high limestone content, this causes underground cavities to collapse, leading to the formation of sinkholes. Turkey, Iran, Jordan, and the area around the Dead Sea are among the places where sinkholes are most frequently observed.
Explaining the water crisis in the region, Fetullah Arik, Director of the Sinkhole Application and Research Centre at Konya Technical University, highlighted the severe water shortage extending from Afghanistan to North Africa. Arik emphasized the intensive use of groundwater for agriculture as a key factor contributing to sinkhole formation. He described the geological conditions necessary for sinkholes, noting their prevalence in karst regions like those found across the Northern Hemisphere.
Nizar Abu Jaber from the German Jordanian University stressed the impact of climate change and population growth on water resources. He underscored the challenges posed by dropping water levels in the Dead Sea and the over-reliance on groundwater, which is unsustainably managed, leading to deteriorating water quality.
The sinkhole problem is particularly acute near the Dead Sea, where sudden ground collapses pose a risk to local communities. Jaber noted that without early warning systems, predicting sinkhole locations is challenging, creating safety concerns for those reliant on agriculture.
Farmers like Hasan Koroglu from Konya have witnessed the impact firsthand, with sinkholes appearing unexpectedly near their homes. Koroglu shared how this phenomenon initially felt like an earthquake, underscoring the unpredictable nature of sinkholes. The drying up of water sources has exacerbated the situation, forcing farmers to rely more on costly underground water extraction.
Muhammed Lutfi Gulbahar, another farmer, observed an increase in sinkhole occurrences since the early 2010s, affecting both agricultural and residential areas. The financial strain from these geological disruptions has been significant, complicating agricultural processes and threatening livelihoods.
The climate change-driven groundwater crisis continues to challenge the Middle East, with regional cooperation and sustainable resource management emerging as crucial steps to mitigate the risks posed by this growing environmental threat.