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Power Politics Gain Strength as Rules-Based Order Weakens

Beirut: The return of power politics in the global arena signals a significant shift from the once-predominant rules-based order, with major powers increasingly operating through parallel structures, particularly in volatile regions like the Middle East. The unraveling of multilateral regimes, initially designed to manage international crises through shared norms and rules, has resulted in regional rivalries becoming more entrenched and difficult to de-escalate.

According to Anadolu Agency, the United States has notably shifted towards ad hoc arrangements outside established multilateral frameworks, a move that has reinforced dynamics prioritizing coercion and uncertainty over predictability and rule-based restraint. This transformation is evident in the intensification of great power rivalries and re-securitization of issues such as nuclear proliferation and energy corridors, pointing to the erosion of multilateralism and diminishing effectiveness of international regimes.

The shift away from multilateralism, particularly by the United States, has been characterized by a retreat from institutional mechanisms and a focus on bilateral bargaining, marking a decisive shift towards unilateralism. This transition facilitates the resurgence of power politics, where strategic interactions become more transactional and less predictable. The weakening of multilateralism, therefore, does not merely coexist with power politics; it actively enables its resurgence, further undermining global stability.

The case of the United States' approach to Iran exemplifies the impact of parallel governance politics on multilateral regimes. The unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018 disrupted not only Iran's nuclear program but also undermined the confidence and trust framework of the agreement. The subsequent reliance on sanctions and bilateral pressure mechanisms underscores the shift from collective security frameworks to parallel implementation orders.

For Israel, Iran represents a structural challenger capable of altering regional power balances, influencing the United States' shift away from multilateral approaches towards Iran. This alignment with Israel's security perspective delivers short-term strategic coherence for Washington, reinforcing Israel's regional position while preserving US freedom of maneuver. However, this alignment bears a significant cost to the international order, contributing to the erosion of regimes and weakening shared normative foundations.

The precondition for global stability, therefore, lies not in the mere existence of international regimes, but in their effective functioning. Stability emerges from the collective willingness of actors to engage within shared constraints, supported by credible implementation and trust in decision-making processes. As states prioritize unilateral flexibility over collective responsibility, parallel arrangements replace common frameworks, and short-term calculations overshadow long-term stability, the reassertion of power politics becomes inevitable.