Asmara: A new conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea could escalate into a large-scale war involving multiple countries across three continents, according to Kjetil Tronvoll, a peace and conflict studies professor at Oslo New University College. Eritrea, which gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993 after a lengthy war, once again finds itself at loggerheads with its neighbor. The two nations previously engaged in a border war from 1998 to 2000, which claimed tens of thousands of lives and strained relations for years.

According to Anadolu Agency, tensions between the countries began to rise anew following the 2022 Pretoria Agreement. Although ties improved in 2018 with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's acceptance of a border ruling, the relationship soured again after the 2020-2022 Tigray war. Ethiopia's subsequent calls for sea access, including the use of Eritrea's Assab port, have further exacerbated tensions.

Tronvoll explained that the current situation is highly volatile, with President Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea failing to achieve his objectives against the Tigray People's Liberation Front. The Ethiopian government's pursuit of sea access and claims over the Red Sea have only heightened tensions. The expert highlighted Ethiopia's accusations that Eritrea supports the Amhara Fano insurgency as detrimental to bilateral relations.

From Ethiopia's standpoint, accusations against Eritrea for destabilizing the country and supporting insurgencies have further strained ties. Tronvoll noted that Addis Ababa's repeated appeals to the UN regarding Eritrean interference have only upped the ante. Despite once being an ally during the Tigray conflict, Eritrea is now viewed as a hostile nation by Ethiopia.

Tronvoll warned that a renewed conflict could have destabilizing effects beyond the Horn of Africa, potentially drawing in regional and international actors. He urged diplomatic interventions to prevent escalation, advocating for negotiations over Ethiopia's access to Eritrean ports and pressing Eritrea to cease meddling in Ethiopia's internal affairs.