Ankara: From Vietnam and Thailand's remote-work initiatives to the Philippines' energy emergency, Southeast Asian governments are grappling with the aftermath of a global energy shock linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The crisis has overshadowed this week's summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) on the Philippine island of Cebu, where leaders are expected to address rising concerns over energy security, inflation, and the region's exposure to geopolitical disturbances well beyond its borders.
According to Anadolu Agency, the 11-member bloc has already adjusted the summit, reducing it from five days to three and moving over 600 preparatory meetings online as rising fuel costs impact the region. The disruptions are attributed to the conflict around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor that manages about 20% of global oil shipments, predominantly directed towards Asia. Southeast Asia, being one of the world's most import-dependent energy regions, has faced significant repercussions.
Under the summit theme "Navigating Our Future, Together," discussions are anticipated to focus on energy and food security, disaster resilience, and regional cooperation amid growing global instability. Analysts suggest that the crisis linked to the Strait of Hormuz disruptions raises deeper questions about ASEAN's capability to collectively respond to external shocks. Holding the summit under these conditions is 'perhaps' already 'a relative success,' according to Georgi Engelbrecht, a senior analyst for the Philippines at the International Crisis Group.
While governments across the region have introduced national measures to manage shortages and rising prices, ASEAN as a bloc has yet to develop a unified strategy. The leaders are expected to revisit proposals such as maintaining trade 'open and predictable,' avoiding export restrictions on essential goods, and accelerating the ASEAN Power Grid project to enhance regional energy-sharing and resilience against external shocks. The agenda is also expected to cover the safety of ASEAN nationals in the Middle East, regional economic resilience, and a collective response to ongoing energy disruptions.
Beyond energy concerns, ASEAN leaders may also face ongoing regional disputes that threaten the bloc's cohesion. Myanmar remains a particularly sensitive issue, with its military leadership barred from ASEAN summits since the 2021 coup. The summit is expected to be attended by leaders from the Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, and Timor-Leste, the bloc's newest member. However, unresolved border and maritime disputes, such as the fragile ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, could undermine broader regional coordination.
The summit is likely to revisit negotiations over the South China Sea Code of Conduct between ASEAN and China, although expectations for a major breakthrough are tempered. ASEAN and China agreed in 2023 to accelerate negotiations and aim to conclude the code within three years, building on an initial 2002 commitment. Despite these diplomatic challenges, the main summit meeting will occur on Friday after two days of ministerial and senior officials' meetings. Engelbrecht notes that while expectations for concrete outcomes are modest, a joint statement is more likely than major policy breakthroughs.