Istanbul: The risk of a powerful El Nino developing later this year is rising, raising concerns that the climate phenomenon could amplify global warming and contribute to new temperature records, heatwaves, floods, and droughts around the world.
According to Anadolu Agency, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has stated there is an 80% chance that El Nino conditions will emerge between June and August 2026, with expectations for it to persist through November at a probability of close to or above 90%. Columbia University has similarly forecasted a 98% likelihood of El Nino conditions during the May-July period.
Speaking to Anadolu, Yurdanur Unal, a faculty member in the Department of Climate Science and Meteorological Engineering at Istanbul Technical University, highlighted that a strong El Nino occurring alongside long-term global warming could significantly increase the likelihood of extreme weather events. She noted that the world is already experiencing slight annual warming due to greenhouse gas-driven climate change, and a strong El Nino could intensify this, leading to consecutive temperature records.
Scientists classify El Nino episodes with a 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) rise in sea surface temperatures as "very strong El Nino" or "Super El Nino" events. Previous such events, including the last El Nino in 2023-2024 and others in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016, were linked to significant global climate disruptions.
Unal explained that El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures rise above normal. Normally, trade winds push warm waters westward, but during El Nino, these winds weaken, spreading warm waters eastward and disrupting the ocean's temperature balance, which can alter global atmospheric circulation and trigger extreme weather events.
A strong El Nino doesn't guarantee disasters, but it raises the probability of extreme weather conditions like droughts, excessive rainfall, floods, and heatwaves. Warmer air can retain more moisture, exacerbating weather anomalies associated with El Nino. If global temperatures temporarily rise 2 degrees Celsius or more above pre-industrial levels due to El Nino, scientists predict a higher risk of record-breaking temperatures and extreme weather.
Citing the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) May 2026 assessment, Unal mentioned a 96% probability of El Nino conditions persisting through next winter, with the strongest influence on global temperatures often felt in the following year.
Despite El Nino's ability to boost global temperatures, Unal emphasized that recent heat records can't solely be attributed to natural climate variability. The WMO found that 2015 to 2025 was the warmest decade globally, with 2023, 2024, and 2025 being the warmest consecutive years despite cooling cycles like La Nina. This underscores the prevailing influence of human-driven greenhouse gas emissions on climate change.
Unal noted that El Nino's direct effects on Trkiye are generally limited due to the stronger influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation and regional atmospheric systems. While El Nino may indirectly affect Trkiye, its impact is weak, with regional and Atlantic-origin atmospheric processes playing a more significant role in shaping the country's climate.