Washington: The US-Iran peace agreement may have ended active hostilities between the two countries, but analysts warn that Israel could use Lebanon as a pressure point to undermine a deal it views as a major strategic setback. The first paragraph of the memorandum of understanding signed by US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian commits both sides and their allies to the "immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon," while reaffirming Lebanon's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

According to Anadolu Agency, experts have expressed concerns that Israel is deeply unhappy with the deal and could seek to derail it by escalating tensions in Lebanon. "Netanyahu will try to do all he can to derail the deal. If not now, then in the coming weeks and months. His tool will be Lebanon," Ahron Bregman, a senior teaching fellow in the Department for War Studies at King's College London, told Anadolu. Trump and Pezeshkian electronically signed the 14-point memorandum this week, a framework for ending the conflict that includes sanctions relief, nuclear negotiations, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz ahead of a final agreement to be negotiated within 60 days.

Analysts, however, warned that implementation remains uncertain as Israel weighs the implications of a deal that could ease Iran's economic isolation and strengthen Tehran's regional position. Although the memorandum commits all parties to ending military operations in Lebanon, Israel has continued near-daily strikes in the country despite a ceasefire that took effect earlier this year. Strikes continued Thursday, after the deal was signed. Since March 2, the Israeli attacks have killed and wounded thousands while displacing around 1 million.

Bregman argued that Lebanon offers Israel the most effective avenue for challenging the agreement without directly confronting Washington over the broader US-Iran negotiations. "Netanyahu will look for reasons to escalate in Lebanon, in order to provoke Iran to defend Hezbollah by hitting Israel," he said. "This way, there will be a crisis and, hopefully, as the Israelis see it, a derailment of the deal and the negotiations." Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the RANE Network, said Israel is using attacks in Lebanon as a strategy to weaken regional rivals and keep them from rebuilding.

Analysts said Israeli concerns extend beyond military considerations and into the political and economic benefits Iran could gain if the agreement moves forward. "The idea is to provoke Hezbollah or Iran into reacting in a way that pushes America back into a hawkish position," said Bohl. Rather than seeking a direct US military confrontation with Iran, he argued, Israel's primary objective may be to undermine Washington's willingness to deliver the sanctions relief outlined in the memorandum.

The emerging agreement has also highlighted growing tensions between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Speaking at the G7 summit this week, Trump suggested he had urged Netanyahu to show greater restraint in Lebanon. "We have a little dispute over Lebanon," Trump said. "You can do a little softer touch, Bibi. You don't have to knock down a building every time somebody walks into it that's from Hezbollah."

Bohl said Trump's criticism may influence Israeli behavior at the margins but is unlikely to alter its broader strategy. "It can get Netanyahu to be less willing to violate the ceasefire in really blatant ways," he said. "It's not going to end the imperative for Israel to violate the ceasefire as many times as it can."

Analysts also pointed to domestic political pressures on Netanyahu, whose coalition remains heavily dependent on far-right parties deeply opposed to concessions toward Iran. Israel is due to hold legislative elections in October, adding further pressure on the prime minister. Bohl said this is probably the toughest spot Netanyahu has ever been in politically, having sold a war that was supposed to solve all of Israel's problems. Many Israeli officials may view the agreement as an even greater setback than the 2015 nuclear deal because it offers broader economic relief while leaving Iran's regional posture largely unchanged.