Jerusalem: Israelis are preparing to head to the polls on October 27 to elect the 120 members of the 26th Knesset, following the dissolution of parliament on July 17. The outcome may determine the political future of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose government will remain in office until a new government is established.
According to Anadolu Agency, the election is centered around Netanyahu's Likud party and his primary challengers, including former army Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot and former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. However, in Israel, the party that finishes first does not necessarily lead the government. The key factor is which political bloc can secure a simple majority after all votes are counted. This means that smaller parties, including religious, far-right, and Arab (Palestinian) factions, could emerge as influential kingmakers.
Israel's electoral system operates on nationwide proportional representation, with the entire country serving as a single electoral district. Voters select a closed party list rather than directly electing a prime minister or choosing individual parliamentary candidates. A party must secure at least 3.25% of valid ballots to enter the Knesset. Seats are distributed proportionally among the qualifying lists, with the Bader-Ofer method used for allocating remaining seats. Surplus-vote agreements allow lists to combine unused votes to compete for additional seats.
Forming a government in Israel involves coalition negotiations. After official results are published, the president consults with elected parties, and each faction recommends a lawmaker to form the government. The president then tasks the most likely candidate with forming a coalition. If unsuccessful, other lawmakers may be given opportunities, with the possibility of another election if all attempts fail.
Historically, coalition bargaining has shaped Israeli politics, with no party ever winning an outright majority. Coalition governments are a permanent feature, with negotiations covering ministerial positions, policies, and budget allocations. Past attempts to directly elect the prime minister were abolished, and Netanyahu has been a dominant figure, serving as prime minister for nearly 19 years.
As Netanyahu seeks another term, his potential partners include far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties. His main challengers, Eisenkot and Bennett, lead centrist and nationalist alliances, respectively. Opposition forces, ranging from left-wing to right-wing parties, share a common goal of removing Netanyahu but differ on key issues like relations with Palestinians and religion-state matters.
The survival of smaller parties is crucial, as falling short of the 3.25% threshold means no representation. Ultra-Orthodox parties like Shas and United Torah Judaism could play pivotal roles in coalition talks. Arab parties are also contesting the election, with Palestinian citizens of Israel potentially holding decisive power if no bloc achieves a majority.
Polls suggest a close contest, with Netanyahu's bloc slightly trailing Eisenkot's camp. Key issues in the election include Netanyahu's leadership, security record, and management of the Gaza conflict. Military exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men also present a challenge, as Netanyahu must balance demands from his ultra-Orthodox allies with broader public sentiment.
As Israelis prepare to vote, the election could redefine the political landscape, potentially leading to another period of political uncertainty or a shift in leadership.