Tehran: Global warming is likely to exceed 1.5C (2.7F) above pre-industrial levels within the next few years, but temperatures could still be brought back down through rapid emissions cuts and sustained net-negative emissions, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) said Wednesday.
According to Anadolu Agency, the UNEP report highlights a concerning trend in global temperature rise, indicating that it is set to cross 1.5C, likely within the next few years. This increase in temperature is expected to escalate climate risks and impacts, but the report suggests that it is still possible to reverse this trend and meet global goals outlined in the Paris Agreement.
The report outlines an 'overshoot, peak and decline' pathway as the most effective strategy to minimize both the extent and duration of warming above the 1.5C threshold. This pathway emphasizes the importance of deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions to limit peak warming and advocates for sustained net-negative emissions to eventually lower temperatures.
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen stated, "There are no good outcomes if we remain above 1.5°C. Across the globe, extreme heatwaves are already proving that climate impacts will strike faster, hit harder, and last longer - costing more lives and causing deeper disruption."
The report cautions that even in the most optimistic scenario, global temperatures could peak at 1.8C above pre-industrial levels, surpassing the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5C. Most other scenarios predict even higher temperature peaks.
With each additional fraction of a degree of warming and every year that temperatures stay above 1.5C, the risks intensify, leading to more severe extreme weather and ecosystem losses. The report warns of severe damage to human health, food security, water supplies, nature, cities, infrastructure, and economies.
Furthermore, the report highlights that the likelihood of crossing irreversible tipping points increases with both the magnitude and duration of higher temperatures. These tipping points include the destabilization of major ice sheets, degradation of the Amazon rainforest, and disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which is crucial in regulating the climate.
The report concludes by noting that while some impacts are likely to emerge abruptly, others will accumulate over time, underscoring the urgency of taking immediate action to address global warming.