Ankara: Commercial shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has plummeted to about 26 vessels a day, a significant drop from the pre-Red Sea crisis average of 70, according to ship-tracking data. This decline raises alarms about the prolonged impact of security threats on one of the world's crucial maritime passages.
According to Anadolu Agency, data from maritime tracking systems revealed that 25 commodity vessels traversed the strait on Tuesday, with 11 entering and 14 leaving the Red Sea. On Wednesday, traffic increased to 28 vessels-16 inbound and 12 outbound-before decreasing to 26 on Thursday, with 10 entering and 16 departing. Over three days, 79 vessels crossed Bab el-Mandeb, averaging about 26 vessels daily. Kpler data indicates a broader 10-day average of approximately 27 vessels per day, highlighting a persistent decline since late 2023.
World Bank Data Lab, using IMF PortWatch satellite AIS data, showed that from January 2022 to October 2023, Bab el-Mandeb managed an average of 71 cargo and tanker vessels per day. This period was immediately before the Gaza war outbreak, after which daily transits surged to over 77 vessels between October 7 and November 16, 2023. However, following Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in November 2023, vessel numbers fell, with a daily average of 43 between November 17, 2023, and February 19, 2024, marking a 39% decline from pre-crisis levels.
World Bank analysis indicated that ships began diverting from the Red Sea visibly by early December 2023, a trend that grew as major shipping firms rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. By March 2024, Bab el-Mandeb traffic had halved compared to pre-crisis levels. The International Institute for Strategic Studies found transits remained 60% below pre-crisis levels from February to October 2024, with traffic persistently lower rather than temporarily impacted.
IMF PortWatch data revealed average daily traffic at about 33.5 vessels in 2025, less than half the 71-vessel pre-crisis level. Traffic hovered in the mid-30s during early 2026, with daily averages of 34 in January, 37 in February, 36 in March, and 37 in April. The average fell to 36 in May, 37 in June, then dropped to 34 in July and 28 in August, marking a further significant decline.
The decline intensified following a Houthi naval blockade announcement targeting Saudi Arabian port traffic on July 20. Kpler noted commodity-related transits averaged 34 vessels per day before the escalation, dropping to a seven-day moving average of 24 by July 29. PortWatch data showed this impact extending into August, with an average of 28 vessels daily, the lowest monthly level observed recently. September figures suggest continued depressed traffic levels, averaging just over 26 vessels per day, with a 10-day average of about 27.
The situation is more dire at the Strait of Hormuz, where only seven commodity vessels crossed on Thursday, down from 11 the previous day, and well below the 10-day average of 15 vessels. Before the Iran war began on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz handled approximately 125 large commercial vessels daily.
This contrast has increased Bab el-Mandeb's strategic importance as Gulf producers explore alternative export routes through Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast. However, the latest Houthi advance along Yemen's western coast adds another risk layer. Houthi forces captured the strategic Perim Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the city of Dhubab in western Taiz province, according to a Yemeni government military source.