Sanaa: When the Israel/US-Iran conflict erupted on February 28, the Houthis initially restricted their involvement to verbal support. The restraint was not due to a lack of resources or willingness but was a strategic pause waiting for Tehran's directive on the optimal deployment of its regional militias. That moment has arrived. In recent days, Houthi forces have captured Mocha and Dhubab and taken control of Perim Island (Mayyun), effectively controlling Yemen's Red Sea coastline and the critical Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
According to Anadolu Agency, the strait is a key maritime chokepoint, handling approximately 12% of global trade, 11% of seaborne oil, and 8% of liquefied natural gas. While these figures alone might be manageable, the simultaneous closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the ongoing conflict compounds the problem. With both straits under threat, Saudi Arabia finds its strategic oil routes severely compromised.
The Houthis' strategic maneuvers signify a calculated shift in focus from targeting Riyadh to broader regional objectives. Previously part of the Saudi-Iranian rivalry, the Houthis had scaled back operations against Saudi Arabia following normalization of relations between the two nations. However, recent shifts have seen them redirect efforts towards Saudi infrastructure and export routes. This strategy, when viewed through the lens of Iran's regional influence, appears coherent and deliberate.
Missiles, drones, and guided shells have expanded the Houthis' operational reach beyond what conventional forces might achieve. These tools enable them to threaten Saudi energy facilities, southern cities, and shipping lanes with minimal warning. Their control over the coast and Perim Island introduces additional military capabilities that are challenging to counteract, such as artillery and anti-tank weaponry.
The repercussions of the Houthis' advance are already evident. Saudi Arabia has been forced to shut its East-West Pipeline following drone attacks, and cities like Jazan, Abha, and Najran are under heightened alert. Seventy-three civilians have sustained injuries from strikes on both civilian and economic targets. From Tehran's perspective, this move serves multiple strategic objectives.
Firstly, it provides Iran with a secondary lever over global energy flows without necessitating direct military engagement. The Houthi gains constrict Saudi export routes, elevate the stakes for American military actions against Iran, and demonstrate Tehran's ability to influence regional dynamics under duress. This aligns with Iran's broader strategy to elevate oil prices, pressuring the U.S. to halt hostilities due to economic implications domestically and internationally.
Secondly, the situation exacerbates divisions within the Gulf Cooperation Council regarding Yemen, the Strait of Hormuz, and the conflict. Iran has strategically distributed the war's financial and human costs among Gulf States, shifting the burden from the UAE to Kuwait, and now to Saudi Arabia. This strategic redistribution has sparked criticism from the UAE towards Riyadh, particularly as Iran and the UAE seek to mend strained relations.
Thirdly, Iran's actions challenge the Mecca defense alliance, with the first significant test stemming from Iran rather than Israel. Saudi Arabia now contends with threats on three fronts: Houthis in the south, Iraqi militias in the north, and Iran to the east. Iran's use of the Houthis against Riyadh may catalyze stronger commitments from Pakistan and Trkiye to the alliance, while Tehran seeks to project the alliance as ineffective, encouraging smaller states to pursue appeasement.
Throughout the conflict, Saudi Arabia has advocated for de-escalation, while Iran and its allies have opted for continued engagement. By leveraging the Houthis, Iran risks alienating its neighbors. Interestingly, although Israel initiated the conflict, Tehran has been cautious in its response to Israeli provocations, highlighting Israeli deterrence.
The developments in Yemen inadvertently benefit Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu has been advocating for Saudi Arabia's inclusion in the Abraham Accords, positioning himself as a potential ally amid the escalating tensions. The conflict and rising oil prices also divert Trkiye and Pakistan's attention, potentially weakening their focus on regional dynamics.
The critical question remains whether the Houthis can maintain their newly acquired territories or if their positions will become vulnerable should Saudi Arabia and its allies mount a decisive counteroffensive.
*Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu.*