Buenos aires: Argentinians are gearing up for pivotal midterm elections this Sunday, where they will elect new lawmakers for both chambers of the national Congress. One-third of the Senate and half of the Lower House will be renewed, marking a significant event two years into President Javier Milei’s far-right government. These elections are not merely legislative contests but are widely seen as a referendum on Milei’s administration and its socio-economic policies.
According to Anadolu Agency, the stakes of the election are heightened by Milei’s decision to frame it as a plebiscite on his government. This strategic move comes from a president who governs without a legislative majority, making the outcome crucial for the administration’s future. Juan Bautista Lucca, a professor and investigator at Conicet, Argentina’s leading scientific funding and research body, emphasized that the government is positioning the vote as a choice between its current path or a step backward.
Milei’s party, La Libertad Avanza (LLA), currently holds 37 of the 257 seats in the Lower House. Through a strategic alliance with the PRO, the conservative party led by former President Mauricio Macri, LLA aims to secure at least one-third of parliament, which would provide a blocking minority. The election’s results will be a critical measure of public support for Milei’s administration. Juan Martin Zanotti, a professor at the National University of Cordoba, noted that the election results would reflect the government’s standing with the public, with a 40% support level viewed as a victory.
The opposition, primarily the Peronist coalition, will contest under the name Fuerza Patria in 12 provinces, including Buenos Aires City, and under different coalition names in other provinces, highlighting its fragmented nature. The midterms are especially significant following Milei’s recent electoral defeat in Buenos Aires province, where his coalition lost to the opposition by a significant margin.
Despite the challenges, experts predict that LLA will increase its legislative representation, though perhaps not to the extent the government desires. A strengthened legislative bloc could facilitate Milei’s agenda and protect against opposition challenges. However, if LLA falls short, Milei’s policy ambitions may face continued hurdles in Congress.
Milei’s presidency has been marked by legislative challenges, including vetoes on bills to increase pensions and disability benefits. However, a recent congressional move to overturn one of Milei’s vetoes underscores the opposition’s potential power when unified. The election outcome will influence not only Milei’s current term but also the next presidential race, with historical trends suggesting that strong midterm performance bodes well for future elections.
Ultimately, the election represents a critical juncture for Argentina, with the government portraying it as a moment of national decision-making. As Zanotti points out, the administration has framed the vote as a defining moment for the country’s future and its economic model, making it an all-or-nothing gamble.