Paris: New observations indicate that asteroid 2024 YR4 will not collide with the moon, easing concerns by astronomers, according to the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Planetary Defence team. The asteroid, measuring between 53-67 meters (174-220 feet), was first detected in December 2024. Initial calculations suggested a 3.1% probability of hitting the Earth in 2032. However, further observations quickly eliminated the possibility of an Earth collision but suggested a 4.3% chance that the asteroid could strike the moon.

According to Anadolu Agency, scientists had previously warned that while an impact would not threaten Earth, debris from a lunar collision could potentially affect satellites used for navigation and communication. However, refined measurements now indicate that the asteroid will pass the moon at a distance of more than 20,000 kilometers (12,400 miles), removing the previously estimated impact risk.

Colin Snodgrass, a professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh, commented on the development, stating, ‘It would’ve been a very interesting science experiment but probably, given the small risk of debris, it wouldn’t be one we’d want to try out.’ He noted that some in the scientific community might feel a bit disappointed.

Astronomers initially did not expect to confirm the asteroid’s trajectory until 2028, when it would become visible again from Earth. Nonetheless, an international team identified two short observation windows in February during which the James Webb Space Telescope could detect and track the faint object. Dr. Andy Rivkin of Johns Hopkins University and Professor Julien de Wit of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who co-led the observations, explained that Webb is uniquely capable of making such measurements due to its sensitivity and stability combined with precise moving-target tracking.

Using these observations, scientists refined the asteroid’s orbit and confirmed it will miss the moon in 2032. Researchers highlighted that increasingly powerful telescopes like Webb and the Vera Rubin Observatory will facilitate the detection and tracking of near-Earth objects in the future. While this may occasionally lead to brief impact concerns, it will also allow scientists to rule them out more quickly.

The European Space Agency responded to the findings by noting, ‘The moon is safe, 2024 YR4 poses no danger, but the work continues.’ The ESA’s Space Safety programme’s Planetary Defence team remains committed to detecting and tracking near-Earth objects to ensure that any genuine danger can be addressed promptly.