Ankara: From drought-hit central and western regions to saturated soils in the east, Trkiye is facing a stark climate divide, with prolonged rainfall deficits tightening their grip on key agricultural areas even as heavy rains raise the risk of flooding elsewhere.

According to Anadolu Agency, data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service's February 2026 Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) maps show a multi-layered picture, with long-term rainfall deficits persisting across western and central provinces while eastern regions record unusually high moisture levels. Mikdat Kadioglu of Istanbul Technical University's Climate Science and Meteorological Engineering Department stated that the two-year rainfall deficit has now become chronic. Exceptional and severe drought conditions are evident in Eskisehir, Kutahya, Afyon, Usak, and western parts of Ankara.

Kadioglu also pointed to continued drought signals in the Marmara Region, with deficits visible in both 24-month and 12-month data around Bursa, Bilecik, Bolu, and Sakarya, raising concerns over water resources. He warned that the impact is no longer limited to rainfall patterns, affecting drinking water supplies in several major cities, most notably Ankara, and turning drought into an economic and social issue.

Prolonged drought is already affecting agriculture, with declining soil moisture across key farming regions, including the plains of Eskisehir, Afyon, and Kony. Kadioglu warned this could lead to reduced crop yields, particularly in areas already facing long-term precipitation deficits. He noted that hydrological drought typically follows meteorological drought with a delay, meaning reservoir and groundwater levels in Marmara and inner Western Anatolia have yet to recover despite recent rainfall. Along the Konya-Karaman line, one of Trkiye's major grain-producing areas, production is increasingly under threat. Water supply security is also becoming increasingly critical in the Marmara Region.

While western regions struggle with drought, short-term data shows strong winter rainfall across eastern Trkiye. Kadioglu reported very moist and, in some areas, extremely moist conditions along the line from Sivas to Hakkari. Although this is positive for agricultural production, it also raises the risk of flooding. The risk of flash floods is rising across eastern and southeastern Anatolia due to increased rainfall. Rainfall has exceeded seasonal norms around Diyarbakir, Sirnak, Siirt, Batman, and Mardin in southeastern Anatolia, while high moisture levels in the Eastern Black Sea region are increasing the risk of landslides.

Kadioglu pointed to uneven rainfall patterns across Central Anatolia, noting that recent precipitation along the Konya-Aksaray-Nevsehir line has not been enough to offset long-term deficits. Despite winter rainfall in inner western Anatolia, the two-year deficit remains unclosed. The Mediterranean coast, including Mersin, Adana, and Antalya, has seen rainfall return to near-normal levels in recent months, but the cumulative deficit persists. Kadioglu emphasized the need for strengthened water management policies and more comprehensive steps to address drought.