Kathmandu: A group of expert academics said Thursday that climate change was "a destabilizing factor acting on a pre-existing geological predisposition" behind last month's deadly flash floods and mudslides along the Nepal-China border.
According to Anadolu Agency, the report by World Weather Attribution, which includes researchers from Nepal, Pakistan, the UK, Ireland, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, the US, New Zealand, and the Netherlands, focused on the combination of factors leading to the disaster. The catastrophic event resulted in over 1,400 fatalities, with more than 6,000 individuals still unaccounted for, based on the latest figures.
The analysis emphasized that while climate change significantly contributed to the disaster, it was not the sole cause. Instead, it acted as a destabilizing factor on an already vulnerable geological landscape. The report highlighted that although Nepal had implemented early warning systems and adaptation measures, the magnitude of the incident exceeded the design and predictive capabilities of current risk reduction strategies.
The disaster occurred on August 26 when a glacier on Nepal's Mount Langtang Lirung fractured at a high altitude. This fracture initiated an ice-rock avalanche that transformed into a massive debris flow, devastating regions along the Nepal-China border and causing significant damage in Nepal's Rasuwa, Nuwakot, Dhading, Kavre districts, and the Kathmandu Valley. The Gyirong border crossing in Xizang was also buried under the debris.
The report noted that the glacier fracture might have been influenced by a magnitude 7.8 earthquake in 2015. Additionally, factors such as warming temperatures, permafrost degradation, glacier thinning and retreat, increased rainfall, and unusually warm conditions likely played a role in triggering the disaster.
The findings underscore the impact of rapidly rising temperatures, driven by fossil fuel emissions, which increase the likelihood and severity of such hazards in the Himalayas. In response, the report called for enhanced adaptation measures, including improved high-Himalaya earth observation, hazard monitoring, risk communication, and transboundary data sharing. It also emphasized the need for a rapid transition from fossil fuels and fulfillment of climate finance commitments to mitigate future risks.