Tokyo: As Japan prepares to vote in its upper house election on Sunday, a mix of economic anxiety, rising nationalism, and growing discontent with the US alliance has turned what might have been a routine vote into a potential inflection point. A right-wing party with a 'Japanese First' message is surging in the polls, food prices are spiking, and Tokyo's traditionally stable ties with Washington are fraying under the weight of unilateral US tariffs, with no deal in sight.
According to Anadolu Agency, many observers blame Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru's leadership and stagnant economic policies for his party's waning fortunes. Japanese academic Saul Takahashi warns that a further rise in xenophobic rhetoric, led by parties like the far-right Sanseito, could threaten both Japan's domestic stability and long-term economic needs.
Some 104 million voters are registered to cast their ballots to elect half of the upper house of Japan's parliament in a contest that could shake the fragile ruling coalition and shape the country's direction on defense, trade, and immigration. The House of Councilors has 250 seats in total, half of which are elected every three years for a six-year term. Voting will run from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m., with initial results expected to start trickling in later the same day.
Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior coalition partner Komeito are already weakened, governing as a minority after losing their lower house majority in the previous general election. A poor showing on Sunday would likely intensify pressure on Ishiba and may trigger calls for a snap election. Latest surveys show the LDP with 20.9% support, followed by the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party at 9.1%. The far-right Sanseito party, campaigning on a 'Japanese First' platform, has drawn 6.9%. The Democratic Party for the People polled at 6.1%, while Komeito stood at 4.9%. A crucial 38.2% of voters say they support no particular party, a wildcard that could significantly shape the outcome.
Economic frustration has dominated the campaign, with inflation at 3.5% and wages stagnating. Rice prices nearly doubled in the year leading up to May 2025, becoming a flashpoint for public anger. Prices began rising after the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war disrupted global supply chains. A heat wave in 2023 decimated the harvest, and panic buying following an earthquake alert further strained supplies. Though Japan has long controlled rice production to balance demand, the government underestimated needs in 2023 and 2024.
Japan's long-standing alliance with the US has also become a potent undercurrent in the election. The Ishiba administration has struggled to shield the economy from tariffs imposed by President Trump, particularly on automobile exports. If Tokyo and Washington fail to reach a trade deal by Aug. 1, all Japanese exports are expected to face a 25% tariff. Although the Japanese prime minister has spoken to Trump several times, negotiations have yet to yield any results.
One of the most striking shifts in this campaign has been the rapid rise of the far-right Sanseito party, whose nationalist message has resonated with disaffected voters. Takahashi noted that although still small in size, Sanseito is 'punching well above its weight.' Its influence could lead to increased xenophobia and a backtracking in policies aimed at attracting foreign laborers, potentially exacerbating Japan's demographic and economic challenges.