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Economists Expect Turkish Central Bank to Maintain 37% Policy Rate This Week


Ankara: Economists expect the Turkish Central Bank to keep its policy rate unchanged at 37% at its monetary policy meeting this week, according to an Anadolu survey released Monday.



According to Anadolu Agency, the survey was conducted ahead of the Turkish Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Thursday, June 11, with 20 economists participating. Out of these, 17 economists forecast that the bank will leave the one-week repo auction rate unchanged, while three predict a 300-basis-point hike.



The median expectation for the June meeting was that the policy rate would remain at 37%. Survey participants projected a median year-end policy rate of 35%, suggesting that monetary easing might resume later this year if disinflation progresses.



At its April meeting, the central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 37%, maintaining the overnight borrowing and lending rates at 35.5% and 40%, respectively. The June decision follows a rise in Trkiye’s annual consumer inflation to 32.61% in May, with monthly inflation at 1.71%. Inflation continues to be a crucial factor influencing expectations over the timing and pace of future policy normalization.



The Turkish Central Bank’s 2026 monetary policy calendar indicates that the June rate decision will be followed by a meeting summary on June 18. The bank also plans to hold policy meetings on July 23, Sept. 10, Oct. 22, and Dec. 10 this year.