Istanbul: The escalating confrontation between Iran, Israel, and the US is exposing fractures in the global order, raising nuclear risks and reshaping Gulf security dynamics, according to two leading policy experts. Speaking to Anadolu on the sidelines of the Stratcom Summit in Istanbul on Saturday, Jon Alterman, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Nancy Okail, CEO of the Center for International Policy, discussed the geopolitical impact of the widening conflict and its possible long-term consequences.
According to Anadolu Agency, Alterman and Okail examined the strain on the global order, noting that divided international reactions to the conflict signal a transformation in the global system. Alterman highlighted changes in US foreign policy under President Donald Trump as partly responsible for this shift. He suggested that the international order could be fundamentally altered by the ongoing war. Okail added that the erosion of global order has been a gradual process, with countries in the Global South recognizing these changes earlier than Western powers.
Alterman addressed Gulf security, suggesting that Iran’s drone and missile attacks could drive regional states towards stronger US security ties. However, Gulf states may continue balancing diplomacy with Iran alongside US partnerships. Okail agreed, noting that confidence in US control over regional escalation has weakened, particularly following Israeli strikes and US involvement, which have increased regional uncertainty.
Regarding nuclear risks, Alterman downplayed the likelihood of deliberate nuclear confrontation, while Okail warned of the dangers posed by accidental escalation, referencing concerns about attacks near nuclear infrastructure. The experts also discussed US troop deployments, with Alterman seeing it as a dual-track strategy to strengthen diplomacy, though it could increase the risk of unintended escalation. Okail interpreted the move as indicative of Washington’s lack of full control over the conflict.
Both experts highlighted the risks of escalation and miscalculation, noting that small incidents could trigger larger US military responses. Okail emphasized the unprecedented volatility in the region and the undermining of diplomacy by simultaneous military operations and diplomatic efforts.
Even if the war ended immediately, both experts agreed that the region has already changed. Alterman pointed to Iran’s ability to threaten key maritime routes and global energy flows, while Okail noted that the war has permanently damaged perceptions of security in the Gulf. She also mentioned increased regional coordination among Middle Eastern countries, though long-term stability requires domestic legitimacy.
Finally, both analysts warned that the conflict’s outcome remains uncertain. Alterman cautioned against assuming the conflict is nearing its end, while Okail linked the conflict to broader global instability, highlighting its impact on energy markets and supply chains. She emphasized that modern security threats cannot be contained geographically or resolved solely through military means.