BRUSSELS: As Europe navigates a turbulent political landscape, the rise of far-right parties is intensifying challenges to the traditional political framework, testing the resilience of the 'cordon sanitaire'-a strategy devised to exclude them from power.
According to Anadolu Agency, the far-right's electoral gains in 2024 underscore a shifting political dynamic across the continent. In Austria, the Freedom Party (FPO) achieved a historic victory in September's parliamentary elections, securing 29% of the vote, marking the strongest showing for far-right parties since World War II. This trend is mirrored in Belgium, where the conservative Flemish N-VA party narrowly won the June elections, with the far-right Vlaams Belang following closely. Months later, coalition negotiations remain at an impasse, highlighting the political instability such shifts can provoke.
In France, the National Rally (RN) experienced a resurgence, leading the first round of early parliamentary elections. However, a coalition between the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) and centrists blocked its path to power in the decisive second round. Germany saw significant gains for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which won a state election for the first time since World War II. With Germany facing snap polls in February, the AfD's strengthening position continues to raise concerns about its growing influence.
Italy's Giorgia Meloni and Hungary's Viktor Orban have further consolidated their roles as far-right leaders. The influence of far-right forces extends to the European Parliament, where groups like the Europe of Sovereign Nations, led by the AfD, and Patriots for Europe, headed by Orban's Fidesz party, hold significant seats.
Adrian Favero, an assistant professor of European politics at the University of Groningen, emphasized that these electoral advances will ensure a strong role for far-right forces in European politics moving forward. He noted the increasing pressure on the cordon sanitaire, questioning its durability in keeping far-right parties out of governing coalitions.
The far right's success is attributed to its populist narrative of 'the people versus the elite,' with cultural issues such as immigration and national identity remaining central to their rhetoric. In the Netherlands, far-right leader Geert Wilders continues to frame Islam as a threat to national identity, appealing to voters concerned about cultural preservation.
The far right's adept use of digital platforms is a key factor in their electoral success. Figures like Elon Musk have influenced the digital landscape in favor of far-right narratives, with platforms like X playing a vital role for right-wing populists, including US President-elect Donald Trump. Additionally, TikTok has proven instrumental in reaching younger audiences, as demonstrated by the RN and AfD.
Favero argues that combating the far right's influence requires proactive grassroots engagement and a refusal to normalize far-right rhetoric. He cautions conservative parties against mimicking far-right populists, noting voters' preference for the original. The media also plays a critical role in resisting normalization, as concerted efforts to challenge far-right narratives are essential to prevent their continued rise in European politics.
The far-right's ascent has significant implications for Europe, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe. Developments in France and Germany, Europe's largest nations, will play a crucial role in determining the region's future. Countries like Romania and Moldova are already experiencing the far-right's growing influence, with restrictive policies in Poland and Hungary illustrating the potential reshaping of regional norms. The protection of minority rights may be undermined, prompting Europe to brace for more debates about its political identity in the coming years.