Gaza: Following the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, the first stage of the Gaza ceasefire deal is nearing completion. On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced the start of 'Phase Two' of the US-brokered deal, which calls for the establishment of a new governing mechanism in Gaza, the creation of a multinational force, and the disarmament of Hamas. However, questions continue to mount over what this next phase will entail, as analysts said that key issues surrounding post-war governance and security in Gaza remain unresolved.
According to Anadolu Agency, Trump's 20-point plan states that Gaza will be governed under the 'temporary transitional governance of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee,' responsible for managing public services and municipalities. The committee will consist of qualified Palestinians and international experts, operating under the supervision of a new transitional body - the 'Board of Peace' - headed and chaired by Trump, with other members to be announced, including Former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair. This body will set the framework and handle funding for Gaza's redevelopment until the Palestinian Authority can "securely and effectively take back control of Gaza."
However, questions arise regarding the administration and governance of "New Gaza." Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East analyst, expressed uncertainty over the future governance structure, pondering whether it aligns with the Oslo Accords or aims for a new independent entity not governed by Hamas. He noted divergent viewpoints, including Hamas's desire for a Palestinian state free from foreign rule and Israel's interest in permanent control.
For Ori Goldberg, an Israeli academic and analyst, the ultimate administration of Gaza remains unclear. He mentioned the selection of 15 technocrats for a governance board, awaiting vetting by Israel and deal signatories, yet the role of the Palestinian Authority remains unspecified.
Trump's plan explicitly stipulates that Hamas and other factions will have no role in Gaza's governance. A demilitarization process is mandated, including decommissioning of military infrastructure. However, the compliance of Hamas, given its stance on disarmament and calls for a Palestinian national dialogue, remains in question. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani highlighted internal disagreements within Hamas on disarmament. Bohl noted some reports suggesting Hamas's willingness to symbolically disarm if it aids in establishing an independent Palestinian state, yet retaining certain arms.
The ceasefire deal also includes a temporary International Stabilization Force (ISF) comprising US, Arab, and international partners. This force would gradually take over security duties from Israeli troops in Gaza. However, details regarding the ISF's participating countries and mandate remain unclear. Bohl ruled out UN involvement, citing opposition from Israel and the US, while questioning whether the ISF will replace Israeli troops entirely or share security responsibilities.
The ceasefire plan also states that Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza. Bohl indicated that due to the ceasefire and international pressure, Israel is unlikely to resume large-scale military operations. Instead, targeted airstrikes may continue, foreseeing a less intense conflict scenario until the next Israeli elections.
The reopening of the Rafah crossing and the entry of humanitarian aid are also part of the ceasefire agreement. Trucks carrying supplies from Egypt have started entering the buffer zone. Analysts suggest that international pressure obligates Israel to permit aid entry. Goldberg remarked on the lack of implementation details in the plan, yet acknowledged Trump's success in garnering regional support.