Berlin: For the first time in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany, the Bundeswehr (German Armed Forces) could fully realize its operational and strategic potential.
According to Anadolu Agency, the £100 billion ($113.4 billion) special fund for the Bundeswehr-approved following Russia's invasion of Ukraine-has opened possibilities for comprehensive procurement of equipment and information technology since 2022. However, the funds have been largely utilized, with only £24 billion actually spent on urgent needs.
The incoming coalition partners have announced plans to potentially increase the German defense budget to £132 billion, accounting for 3% of the gross national product. Yet, the anticipated change in mentality and strategic realignment of the Bundeswehr has not been realized, with the exception of a shift in military aid for Ukraine. The Bundeswehr's realignment in response to evolving security dynamics is hindered by procurement issues and deficiencies in command structures, attributed to inadequate political leadership.
The defense policy guidelines adopted in 2023 introduced the concept of war capability but failed to strategically realign the Bundeswehr. Defining strategic requirements and adapting the Bundeswehr's equipment, size, capabilities, and defense form will be crucial tasks for the next federal government.
NATO's Defense Planning Process requirements will influence the German Armed Forces' realignment, and forthcoming decisions within the North Atlantic Alliance may alter the capability profile and size of the armed forces. The transatlantic relationship's current turbulence and the EU's recent commitment to rearmament may also impact these developments.
EU member states face a choice between forming a European pillar within NATO or establishing a standalone European defense community. Currently, the EU lacks the politico-military goals, military headquarters, and command structure necessary for the latter. The EU's dependence on member states' operational headquarters and limited military capabilities presents challenges in planning civil-military or military operations.
Calls to enhance the EU's military role often overlook political-military decision-making processes. The unification of EU member states, each with different political cultures and objectives, is a lengthy process given the current international situation. Military procurement, general staff training adaptation, and a common understanding of robust engagement rules remain unresolved issues.
The Bundeswehr is not yet prepared for a European leadership role, as illustrated by slow progress on a European drone and systemic flaws in procurement decisions like the A400M and F-35 purchases. With US President Donald Trump's political resurgence, even recent acquisitions face renewed scrutiny.
Coalition negotiations reveal divisions on defense models, with the SPD advocating for voluntary military service and the CDU/CSU favoring reviving general conscription. Compulsory military service was suspended in 2010 but could be reinstated through simple legal regulation. Current global political turmoil suggests this may be necessary, although achieving the required political consensus seems unlikely.
The Bundeswehr's future capabilities must be defined through a strategic analysis aligned with NATO and EU requirements, considering threats from Russia and the need for readiness across multiple scenarios. Focus areas include increased combat platforms, technology-driven defense strategies, AI networking, cyber capabilities, and reassessment of maritime warfare.
The North Atlantic Alliance's 2025 planning process will necessitate further adaptation of the armed forces' capabilities. The abolition of the civilian clause separating civilian and military research and catching up with military utilization of satellite constellations are key steps. European coordination challenges, such as with IRIS-T and FCAS, highlight fragmentation issues.
Germany's security policy stagnation is due to departmentalism and poor coordination between the Federal Foreign Office and the Defense Ministry. A National Security Council remains unlikely, with political focus on intra-coalition dynamics.
German society's complex relationship with the military stems from historical legacies. Enhancing the armed forces' attractiveness involves state and societal recognition. As Germany approaches 2025, its political culture and business model must evolve to maintain a leading global role. The success of the next federal government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz will depend on redefining the Bundeswehr's role within European, transatlantic, and global frameworks.