Istanbul: The rapidly aging global population is expected to impose an unsustainable financial burden on social security and healthcare systems, as the costs of longevity have long surpassed the capacity of any institution to manage them, with the global population aged 65 and older reaching 1.6 billion by 2050, according to a recent report.
According to Anadolu Agency, insurance firm Trkiye Sigorta's report brought to the fore the global demographic transformation, the impact of an aging population on the economy's health, changes led by next-generation technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) and GLP-1, the risks that the insurance and pension sectors may face, and the ethical debates over longer lifespans.
Gurol Sami Ozer, deputy general manager of treasury and pensions at insurer Trkiye Sigorta, told Anadolu that managing the demographic shift requires a balanced burden-sharing arrangement among governments, pension companies, and individuals. Ozer noted that while the worker-to-retiree ratio in Europe is 3.4, it is expected to drop to two by 2050.
"Rising medical costs and staff shortages as the population ages put pressure on profit margins," he said. "Governments are preparing by establishing mechanisms to automatically raise the retirement age and conditions depending on life expectancy, but the greatest economic and social risk lies in the shift of the cost of living from the state to individuals and the deepening savings gap," he added.
Trkiye, for instance, has mandatory second-tier models like the Medium-Term Program's Supplementary Pension System and the Individual Pension System, Ozer highlighted. He noted that citizens need to utilize supplementary pension systems and alternative savings methods to offset future income losses and out-of-pocket healthcare expenses, suggesting hybrid financial products that convert retirement savings into lifetime supplementary health insurance policies to help minimize individual risks.
Ozer mentioned that technologies that ensure long and healthy lives, expensive biotechnological treatments, and innovative medications are accessible only to the wealthy, threatening to bring about a biological caste system, extending the socioeconomic divide into the physiological realm. "44% of those in the lowest-income group report chronic diseases, while among high-income people this rate remains at 28%, clearly showing the extent of health inequality and its potential to further deepen in the future," he said.
"The public sector's regulatory roles, inclusive long-term care programs, and other inclusive products within the private insurance ecosystem will be key in maintaining social balance," he added.
Ozer stated that the insurance industry is being prompted to redefine its actuarial boundaries, shifting away from age-based payout limits as companies adopt more dynamic and defined-contribution models that automatically adjust financial multipliers and pension payouts based on current life expectancy coefficients.
He mentioned that growing cost pressures in healthcare systems can be eased by AI applications offering solutions and enhancing efficiency, reducing research and development (R and D) costs, and contributing to drug discoveries. He noted that the GLP-1 obesity drug sparked a critical change in the biomedical field, with the potential to grow the size of the market to $190 billion by 2035. "Since weight loss through administering GLP-1 is rapidly preferred and it's evolving into a continuous subscription-based ecosystem, this is adding new burdens on medical budgets," he added.