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Israel-Lebanon Cease-Fire Raises Questions About Potential Gaza Truce.

Beirut: The cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon is raising questions about whether a similar truce could bring an end to the ongoing Israeli conflict in Gaza. According to Anadolu Agency, statements from around the world have given rise to cautious hope, such as the US saying it aims to use the Lebanon truce 'as a catalyst for a potential Gaza cease-fire,' but prospects of something actually materializing remain uncertain. Palestinian academic Sami Al-Arian believes Israel does not want a cease-fire in Gaza, at least 'for the time being.' He stated that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who could face prison once the war ends in Gaza, does not seem interested in getting the hostages out or ending the conflict. Al-Arian pointed out that Israel has been trying to 'annihilate the (Palestinian) resistance' without success and has also failed to 'free their captives with military means.' These failures, he argues, make a cease-fire unlikely in line with Israel's goals. Israeli expert Ori Goldberg al so finds the chances of a truce in Gaza difficult, referencing Netanyahu's own statement rejecting such a possibility. Goldberg noted that the Israeli premier, wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes, is unlikely to agree to cease-fire terms that could risk his political standing. He discussed how various countries have shown renewed interest in a hostage deal, but emphasized that a cease-fire in Gaza would require a detailed Israeli withdrawal schedule. Goldberg expressed skepticism about Netanyahu's willingness to agree to such terms, especially given the stronger public support for military presence in Gaza compared to Lebanon. Experts suggest that Israel agreed to the Lebanon cease-fire primarily because it failed to achieve its military objectives against Hezbollah. Al-Arian highlighted several failed goals, including pushing Hezbollah north of the Litani River and disarming them. He emphasized that the current agreement is 'not a cease-fire' but a 60-day truce, motivated by Israel's i nability to bring Hezbollah to surrender. Lebanese security analyst Ali Rizk offered a slightly differing perspective, suggesting that both Israel and Hezbollah needed the truce. Rizk explained that Hezbollah had suffered heavy blows and immense human suffering, particularly among the Shia community. For Israel, he believes the initial momentum after the assassination of Hezbollah's former leader faded due to strong resistance in the south, resulting in significant Israeli casualties and continued Hezbollah missile attacks. Rizk also pointed to the US's role in the truce, noting that since October 2023, the US did not want the situation in Lebanon to escalate. The US welcomed steps towards de-escalation and sent Biden's special envoy, Amos Hochstein, when circumstances allowed. Rizk suggested that the converging interests of Hezbollah, Israel, and the US helped facilitate the truce. Goldberg added that Netanyahu agreed to the truce because his forces were not achieving their goals in Lebanon and wanted to maintain military focus in Gaza. He suggested that the Lebanon agreement serves as a political achievement for Netanyahu as it involves two sovereign states. On the durability of the Lebanon truce, Rizk expressed optimism, referencing the calm situation from 2006 to 2023 under Resolution 1701. He believes there is potential for long-term calm due to the lack of interest from Israel and the US in escalating the situation. With the incoming Trump administration showing aversion to military conflicts, Rizk sees a good chance for the agreement to hold. Goldberg, however, offered a more cautious outlook, suggesting that while the cease-fire might hold, provisions allowing Israel to use violence could pose challenges. He believes Netanyahu has an interest in maintaining the cease-fire to focus on Gaza. Rizk also sees potential for a resolution in Gaza, mentioning reports that US President-elect Donald Trump told Netanyahu he wants the conflict to end. Trump's foreign policy priorities, which appear to avoid new Middle East conflicts, could lead to a formula for ending the Gaza situation and pursuing a hostage deal.