Jerusalem: One of the core assumptions underpinning the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran-that a wave of popular rebellion would topple the government from within-has failed to materialize after three weeks of fighting.

According to Anadolu Agency, the New York Times reported that current and former officials from multiple countries have noted the lack of anticipated uprisings. Mossad chief David Barnea had assured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that his agency could incite opposition and spark a revolt shortly after the initial strikes. This assessment was used by Netanyahu to persuade US President Donald Trump that overthrowing the Iranian government was achievable.

However, senior US officials and Israeli military intelligence analysts had warned that no significant public uprising would occur under aerial bombardment, a prediction that has proven accurate. Intelligence agencies from both countries now view the Iranian government as damaged but still intact, with state repression preventing public dissent.

Netanyahu has expressed his frustration, reportedly conveying in a security meeting that Mossad's efforts had not produced the expected outcome, and cautioning that Trump might withdraw support at any moment. A secondary plan to back Iranian Kurdish militias for a cross-border incursion has also faltered. Initial Israeli airstrikes in northwestern Iran aimed to set the stage for such a move, but support from Washington diminished quickly.

Trkiye, a NATO member, advised the Trump administration against supporting Kurdish military actions, and on March 7, Trump instructed Kurdish leaders to stand down. The US-Israeli strikes against Iran, which began on February 28, have reportedly resulted in over 1,300 casualties, including the death of the then-Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.