Tel Aviv: Amid escalating political unrest in Israel, emerging reports of potential military rule in Gaza have sparked widespread concern, particularly amid dramatic changes unfolding in Israeli domestic politics.
According to Anadolu Agency, recent actions, such as the dismissal of key security and legal officials, along with new military appointments, have cast uncertainty over Israel's security policies both domestically and in the occupied territories.
Experts warn these developments are symptomatic of an intensifying crisis in Israeli civil-military relations, potentially setting the stage for prolonged occupation and raising fears of ethnic cleansing targeting Palestinians in Gaza. Analysts interpret the turmoil as indicative of a larger ideological struggle within Israel.
Ahron Bregman, a former Israeli army official and political scientist, observed the internal conflict as a struggle between liberal forces and conservative, more traditional, far-right factions. He warned of the potential for civil war, suggesting that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to thrive on these divisions rather than working to unify the nation.
Concerns over the possibility of military rule in Gaza have been heightened by reports of meetings between Israeli officials and US counterparts in Washington. Netanyahu's far-right coalition partners, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, have been advocating for military control over Gaza, viewing it as a step toward resettlement.
Geopolitical risk analyst Andreas Krieg noted that Israel's military intelligence bodies, including the Shin Bet domestic security agency, have generally recommended against reoccupying Gaza due to the increased risks it poses. Krieg described a growing divide between the security establishment and Netanyahu's administration concerning Gaza's future.
Significant shifts in Israeli military leadership have also influenced strategic changes. The appointment of Maj. Gen. Eyal Zamir as the new chief of staff, following Gen. Herzi Halevi's resignation, has altered military tactics in Gaza. Bregman highlighted the shift from temporary military incursions to a more sustained presence in Gaza neighborhoods.
Krieg noted a strategic shift towards intense aerial bombardments and the compartmentalization of Gaza, which he described as a strategy of divide and rule. This approach, he warned, could facilitate long-term occupation and ethnic cleansing, making it unlikely for displaced Palestinians to return to their homes.
The dismissal of Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar by Netanyahu has further fueled unrest and protests. Bregman explained that Bar's removal was linked to his insistence on investigating a case involving the Prime Minister's office, highlighting concerns over the erosion of meritocracy within Israel's security apparatus.
The politicization of Israel's security sector has been noted as a growing concern, with far-right extremist influences reshaping the military and security strategies. Krieg highlighted the increasing representation of religious Zionists within the military, which has impacted the conduct of operations in the West Bank and Gaza.
As internal polarization within the army intensifies, the cohesion and effectiveness of the Israeli Defense Forces could be severely impacted. Krieg suggested that Netanyahu may deliberately foster such divisions to maintain ongoing conflict.