Ankara: As Manfred Worner, then-NATO secretary general, observed in 1993, the end of Soviet communism presented a paradox: a decrease in threat did not necessarily translate into increased peace. This sentiment resonates today as Iran's recent military activities have heightened security concerns in the Gulf region. Iran's posture has been perceived as a threat by Gulf states since 1979, culminating in a direct military offensive on February 28 that has reshaped the geopolitical landscape.
According to Anadolu Agency, prior to this escalation, Gulf states relied heavily on external military support, primarily from the United States, for their security needs. Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar have been designated as Major Non-NATO Allies by the US, and have sought to diversify their security partnerships to include European countries, China, Turkey, and Israel. Despite these efforts, none of these states have achieved complete self-sufficiency in national security, prompting them to enhance cooperation with multiple external powers and invest in domestic defense industries.
Launched in 2004, the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative (ICI) marked the Gulf states' formal engagement with NATO, though participation has been uneven. The UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait are active members, but Saudi Arabia and Oman remain outside the initiative, posing a challenge to unified regional security cooperation. The ICI encompasses six core principles aimed at fostering collaboration, yet less than 15% of proposed NATO activities under the initiative have been realized, with Gulf states playing limited roles in NATO missions globally.
In 2008, NATO expanded its partnership with Gulf states through a multilateral framework, which was further reinforced by the 2009 Strasbourg/Kehl Summit Declaration. This declaration encouraged Gulf states to develop Individual Cooperation Programs (ICPs) with NATO, acknowledging the structural challenges of a unified framework. The UAE has emerged as a key partner, establishing a permanent mission to NATO in 2012, while Kuwait hosts the ICI Regional Centre and has signed a transit agreement with NATO.
Despite common security challenges, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) does not have a unified security perspective, leading to varied expectations of NATO's role. The alliance could enhance maritime security in the Gulf, a domain recently exposed to vulnerabilities. However, the dominant role of the US in regional security and NATO's strategic focus on other global areas, like the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, complicates the situation.
As Turkey's Deputy Foreign Minister Zeki Levent Gumrukcu announced, a special session involving the four Gulf ICI members will be held during the Ankara Summit. This meeting aims to explore expanded cooperation amidst regional instability, emphasizing the need for improved security frameworks and burden-sharing in the Gulf. Maritime security stands out as a critical area for potential NATO contribution, addressing both safe passage through important waterways and environmental protection from potential maritime threats.
Ultimately, the Ankara Summit holds the potential to transform Gulf security dynamics by fostering a more collaborative and effective approach, especially in maritime security. As the Gulf states seek to bolster their deterrence capabilities, enhanced cooperation with NATO could strengthen the region's security architecture against the backdrop of ongoing regional tensions.