Jerusalem: As a fragile ceasefire, or at least the possibility of one, emerges between Israel and Iran, skepticism abounds over whether any sort of truce could actually be sustained, with observers pointing to Tel Aviv's persistent violations of similar deals for Gaza and Lebanon.
According to Anadolu Agency, another major cause for doubt is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's own calculations, which analysts suggest are driven by the sole objective of political survival as he faces growing domestic unpopularity, corruption trials, and a weakening coalition.
Wars have evidently become a key part of Netanyahu's survival strategy, with Israel's attacks on Iran coming shortly after the premier narrowly survived no-confidence votes that threatened to dissolve parliament and trigger early elections. For one of them, only a last-minute deal for mandatory military service with ultra-Orthodox parties prevented his government's collapse, showing just how thin the political ice is getting under Netanyahu.
Israeli academic Neve Gordon believes Israel's decision to attack Iran was largely driven by Netanyahu's pride and his desire to re-establish himself as a 'successful leader.' Gordon told Anadolu that Netanyahu launched a genocidal war on the Palestinian people in Gaza to dismantle Hamas, following a perceived hit to his historical reputation after Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023 attacks.
According to Gordon, Netanyahu believes the 'only way to come back to history as a winner ... is to dismantle the nuclear program in Iran.' This sense of urgency was reflected in the official Israeli statement put out on Tuesday to accept US President Donald Trump's ceasefire call, which claimed that Israel had achieved the 'operation's goals' and 'removed the double existential threat in the nuclear and the ballistic missile areas.'
Gordon emphasized that Netanyahu, in the first place, launched the Iranian offensive despite US intelligence and other assessments contradicting Israeli claims that Tehran was close to attaining nuclear weapons. Despite the potential for significant casualties and regional destabilization, Netanyahu proceeded with the offensive to ensure his legacy.
For months, experts have argued that Netanyahu has deliberately prolonged Israel's genocidal war on Gaza to maintain support from his far-right political allies. Gordon pointed out that stopping the conflict could lead to the collapse of his government, prompting new elections, which Netanyahu wants to avoid due to ongoing corruption trials.
Gordon, a professor of international law and human rights at Queen Mary University of London, highlighted Netanyahu's declining popularity prior to the Iranian conflict. However, following Israel's conflict with Iran, Netanyahu has seen a resurgence of support, even from opposition figures. Despite this temporary rise, Gordon believes Netanyahu's popularity might decline again if the war persists.
Israeli analyst Ori Goldberg also sees domestic motivations behind Netanyahu's actions, emphasizing his intent to preserve his fragile coalition. He noted Netanyahu's pressure over a law that ultra-Orthodox politicians want to pass, which would exempt ultra-Orthodox young men from military service. Goldberg suggested that Netanyahu has escalated tensions with Iran partly due to Israel's challenges in achieving victories in Gaza.
Gordon concluded with a stark warning about Netanyahu's actions destabilizing regional security, describing him as 'an extremely dangerous leader' and urging international leaders to pressure for an end to Israel's aggression. He called for an immediate ceasefire and a withdrawal of Israeli military forces from the Gaza Strip.