New york: As US and Israeli strikes pound Iranian targets for a fourth consecutive day, a central question is beginning to overshadow the battlefield: What is Washington's endgame? Days of mixed messaging from President Donald Trump and his administration have left analysts warning that the US has yet to articulate a coherent long-term strategy or a credible 'day after' plan.
According to Anadolu Agency, in his first public remarks on Monday since the start of the war, Trump said the immediate military objectives are destroying Iran's missile capabilities, preventing it from being able to develop nuclear weapons, and severing its support to proxy groups in the region. He also framed the war as a way to protect the Middle East and 'the American people' from an 'intolerable threat,' adding that the campaign could last four to five weeks and might be extended if necessary.
In his initial video statement after launching attacks, Trump had called on Iranians to 'take over your government' as 'America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force.' While US-Israeli strikes have killed senior Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, experts say the Trump administration has not explained what political outcome it seeks in Iran once the bombing campaign concludes.
Evan Cooper, a research analyst with the Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program at the Stimson Center, noted, "The Trump administration does not appear to have a substantial 'day after' plan for Iran, nor a clear strategy for what they want to accomplish over the longer term." Cooper argued that Trump's vague explanations about the purpose of the strikes and what follows reveal the absence of a structured strategic process.
Mixed signals have also emerged from recent indirect US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva. Before the negotiations, Trump had emphasized his preference for a deal, stating, "My preference is to solve this problem through diplomacy." Yet, even on Sunday, Trump suggested Iran's post-Khamenei leadership had agreed to talks, a claim Iranian officials denied, reflecting a broader pattern of mixed messaging.
Experts like Cooper believe Trump likely wants hostilities to halt before the conflict resembles another prolonged US war in the Middle East. "His appeal for diplomacy demonstrates a real lack of understanding of the consequences of US actions. To launch such a major strike during ongoing talks sends a message that the US will quickly return to force and makes engaging in diplomacy seem futile," Cooper said.
Adding to the complexity, Trump has framed the campaign in ideological terms, vowing to bring 'freedom' to the Iranian people. However, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the operation was not intended to topple Iran's leadership. Analysts say the messaging from Trump and his team lacks clarity, leaving much room for speculation and questions.
Jason H. Campbell, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, pointed out the inconsistency in urging political change one day and referencing negotiations with the same regime the next. Campbell mentioned that the administration appears to be downplaying the campaign as an 'operation' rather than a war, especially since Trump campaigned on avoiding foreign entanglements.
The conflict is also stirring debate in Washington. Several lawmakers have demanded a vote in Congress to halt what they call an unauthorized war. Cooper noted that the war is unpopular domestically and has exposed divisions within the Republican Party. "This is not a popular war in the US and it has already caused some splits among Republicans. Trump did little to set the political groundwork for supporting sustained operations against Iran, which will be increasingly hard to do now that the war has begun."
Despite the controversies, Congress is unlikely to impose meaningful constraints. "Democrats see the war as unpopular and owned by Trump, so they are unlikely to do much to try to stop him," Cooper said. "Republicans who oppose the war may be able to make the case to Trump to reverse course, but if Iran sustains attacks on US bases, Trump will feel significant pressure to respond."