New york: Brent crude futures experienced sharp volatility during the first 100 days of the Middle East war following US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28. Brent crude closed at $72.78 per barrel on February 27, the last trading day before the attacks. Prices surged to $82.37 on March 2 after reports that Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed.
According to Anadolu Agency, Iran’s retaliatory attacks on energy infrastructure across the Middle East during the early phase of the conflict, along with uncertainty surrounding oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, fueled concerns over supply security. Brent crude climbed to $92.69 per barrel on March 6, recording its fastest weekly gain since April 2020 with a rise of 27.9%.
Prices continued higher, reaching $119.50 on March 9, their highest level in years. However, reports suggesting the conflict could end soon, coupled with measures involving strategic oil reserves and conciliatory signals from Washington, triggered a sharp correction. Selling pressure intensified the following day, with Brent crude falling as low as $81.16 on March 10, although security concerns in the Strait of Hormuz helped limit losses. Throughout March, prices fluctuated sharply within a range of roughly $75 to $119 per barrel.
A two-week temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran that took effect on April 8 prompted a steep decline in prices, with Brent crude dropping to as low as $90.40 per barrel during the day, down about 17.3% from the previous close. Nevertheless, unresolved regional risks and continued uncertainty over maritime shipping routes renewed upward pressure on prices despite the truce.
Harsh rhetoric exchanged by US and Iranian officials during negotiations also heightened concerns that tensions would persist and global oil supplies could remain under pressure. Brent crude surged to $126.41 per barrel on April 30, its highest level since the conflict began, after reports suggested US-Iran talks had stalled and President Donald Trump was considering additional military options. The price marked its highest level in nearly four years.
Throughout April, Brent crude traded in a volatile range between $86 and $126 per barrel amid shifting developments in negotiations and regional tensions. Reports in early May that the US was close to signing a one-page agreement to end the war with Iran and expand nuclear talks helped ease market concerns, pushing Brent crude back below $100 per barrel.
Expectations of diplomatic progress continued to weigh on prices. However, conflicting statements from both sides about the status of negotiations and uncertainty surrounding developments on the ground kept Brent crude fluctuating between $91 and $115 per barrel throughout May. Persistent security risks in the Strait of Hormuz and continuing attacks across the region have prevented a more significant decline in prices.
Since May 27, Brent crude has traded below the $100-per-barrel threshold as markets searched for direction amid optimism over a potential agreement between the parties. Brent crude settled at $93.09 per barrel on June 5, the final trading day before the conflict entered its 100th day, representing a 28.4% increase from pre-war levels. The oil market remains highly sensitive to developments surrounding the conflict, with a significant geopolitical risk premium still embedded in prices. The trajectory of both the war and diplomatic negotiations is expected to remain a key driver of market movements.