Jerusalem: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party has fallen to 19 seats, marking its lowest level since May 2025, according to an opinion poll published on Friday. This development comes approximately six weeks before the general election scheduled for October 27.
According to Anadolu Agency, the Maariv newspaper published the survey, describing the result as a 'historic collapse' for Netanyahu's party. The poll was conducted by Lazar Research, under the direction of Menachem Lazar, in collaboration with the Panel4All research platform. Conducted on September 9-10 among 4,329 respondents, the survey had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
The results indicate that, if elections were held today, Likud would win 19 seats, a decrease from 21 in a poll conducted earlier in the week. Maariv noted that this represents the party's weakest performance since May 29, 2025. In contrast, former army chief Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party remains the largest, securing 25 seats, unchanged from Monday's survey.
At the bloc level, parties in the current governing coalition are projected to secure 50 seats, while opposition parties would win 58. Arab parties are expected to receive the remaining 12 seats. Naftali Bennett's Yachad party is projected to win 14 seats, an increase of one from Monday's poll, while Yair Golan's Democrats are expected to fall to 10 seats.
Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu is projected to rise by one seat to nine, while the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party, led by Yaakov Asher, would receive seven seats. The religious Shas party, led by Aryeh Deri, is also projected to receive seven seats. The right-wing Religious Zionism-Zehut alliance, led by Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin, would fall to five seats. Meanwhile, the new Amcha Yisrael party, led by Ofer Winter, is expected to pass the electoral threshold and win four seats.
Among Arab parties, the Joint List, led by Yousef Jabareen, would win seven seats, while the United Arab List, led by Mansour Abbas, would secure five seats. Several parties, including Benny Gantz's Blue and White and Avi Maoz's Noam Yisrael, are projected to fail to pass the 3.25% electoral threshold. A total of 38 lists have registered to run in the upcoming vote, with polls suggesting only 13 are likely to win seats. A minimum of 61 seats is required to form a government in the 120-member Knesset.
The poll also reflects Netanyahu trailing his rivals in the premiership race. Eisenkot leads Netanyahu by 12 percentage points, receiving 50% support compared to 38% for Netanyahu. Bennett also surpasses Netanyahu in the race, with 45% support against Netanyahu's 40%. The election is viewed as decisive for Netanyahu's political future amidst accusations of corruption, authoritarianism, and failure. Netanyahu, who has led the current government since late December 2022, is also wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza Strip since November 2024.