Bangsamoro: Final results have been trickling in as vote counting continues in the southern Philippines' majority-Muslim Bangsamoro Autonomous Region on Tuesday, with the first-ever parliamentary elections likely to produce a hung parliament. Partial and unofficial results showed the Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) and United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) among the leading political parties as results continued to come in.
According to Anadolu Agency, the BFP led with 632,944 votes, followed by the UBJP with 593,256 votes, with 95.40% of precincts reporting as of 11.44 pm (1544GMT), according to unofficial results from local news outlet Rappler. The Bangsamoro Grand Coalition (BGC) followed with 374,440 votes, while the Bangsamoro People's Democratic Party received 66,543.
The BFP is led by current Bangsamoro interim Chief Minister Abdulraof Macacua, while the UBJP is headed by former interim Chief Minister Murad Ebrahim, who is also the leader of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. The landmark vote, held Monday, will determine the composition of the region's first elected parliament, replacing the interim administration led by the Bangsamoro Transition Authority.
Some 2.39 million people were registered to vote across 5,212 precincts in the autonomous region. The 80-member parliament consists of 40 regional parliamentary party representatives, 32 district representatives, and eight sectoral representatives. Political parties need at least 2.5% of valid votes to qualify for seats allocated through the regional party vote. The elected parliamentarians will later choose the region's chief minister.
According to Bangsamoro Member of Parliament-elect Ishak Mastura, the three biggest parties in the region may coalesce to form the government of the day. "Otherwise, we'll have a hung parliament," he said.
Georgi Engelbrecht of the International Crisis Group told Anadolu that a coalition is highly likely as an outcome of the election. "All in all, we need to wait for a coalition. The question now is who will lead it. There are some scenarios," he said, outlining three possibilities. The first is for "all three parties (viz BFP, UBJP and BGC) under one umbrella," which he said the national government "may be interested in," although "it is hard to unite them all."
The second would be a coalition led by the clans, with Macacua retained as chief minister, bringing together the BFP and BGC, he said. According to Engelbrecht, the third scenario could see the UBJP secure the chief minister's post by allying either with part of the BFP or the BGC. "Bargaining will take place in the coming days and weeks, with Manila also likely to play a role," said the Crisis Group expert on the Philippines. "The kingmakers might be the three clans of BGC" -- Adiong of Lanao, Hataman of Basilan, and Mangudadatu of Maguindanao, he said.
Engelbrecht also predicted a possible "wildcard scenario." "There is also a wildcard scenario of a term-sharing -- an alternate arrangement by which one person leads the regional government for an amount of time before the next chief minister takes over," he said.
Presidential Adviser on Peace, Reconciliation and Unity Mel Senen Sarmiento hailed the election as a "defining milestone" in the Bangsamoro peace process, saying the region had demonstrated its readiness for democratic self-rule. Sarmiento also highlighted the Moro Islamic Liberation Front's participation in the elections, describing it as a significant step in the group's transition from an armed movement to a democratic political organization.
Four people were killed and 19 injured in election-related incidents in Bangsamoro, the Commission on Elections said Monday, according to GMA News Online. The elections follow the 2014 Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro, which paved the way for the creation of the autonomous region and the transition from armed conflict to parliamentary governance.