Istanbul: Trkiye is grappling with a severe water deficit that has persisted for two years, and experts say sustained rainfall is essential to address the crisis. Mikdat Kadioglu, a meteorological engineering professor at Istanbul Technical University (ITU), assessed the January 2026 Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) maps released by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) for Anadolu.

According to Anadolu Agency, Kadioglu stressed the importance of long-term data in comprehending the situation, noting that Trkiye entered 2026 with its most significant water deficit in two years. The ongoing meteorological drought has led to hydrological and agricultural droughts. Western and central regions have experienced below-normal precipitation for over two years, severely affecting major cities like Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir.

Kadioglu pointed out that the accumulated water deficit cannot be resolved by a few months of heavy rainfall and warned that short-term recoveries might be misleading. Regions under 'exceptional drought' have seen soil moisture and water levels drop to historic lows, indicating a long-standing issue rather than a temporary meteorological event.

With groundwater supplying 60% of Trkiye's agricultural irrigation, Kadioglu warned of severe depletion in central farming areas, where water levels decrease by an average of 3 meters annually. He described this decline as a deepening debt, further exacerbated by recent extreme rains damaging surface crops without addressing the deep water deficit.

Although partial dam capacities have temporarily aided specific crops like maize and sunflower in the south, precipitation throughout the water year remains significantly below normal. While irrigated areas offer some hope, rain-fed farming zones continue to face a crisis risk.

Spring temperatures are expected to be 1 to 2 degrees above normal, creating a stark contrast in climate across the country. The northern Black Sea coast remains largely unaffected by the drought due to humid air masses, while mountain ranges prevent these systems from reaching central regions, turning the coast into a 'moisture island.'

Kadioglu emphasized that above-average rainfall for 6 to 12 months is necessary to recover from the deep hydrological drought, though current forecasts do not predict this. He warned that groundwater recovery in central agricultural areas might take decades and stressed the need for increased urban conservation, enhanced water transfer systems, and a shift to drip irrigation, drought-resistant seeds, and rainwater harvesting.

A dry and hot spring could leave Trkiye with limited dam reserves for summer, making water restrictions and crop losses in dry farming areas likely. Kadioglu concluded that water has become a strategic national resource issue.