Riyadh: As US President Donald Trump embarks on a significant tour of the Middle East, the strategic and economic importance of the Gulf Arab states in Washington's foreign policy comes into sharp focus. This diplomatic mission, marking the first major international trip of Trump's second term, includes stops in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. The visit is set against a backdrop of regional instability, particularly Israel's ongoing conflict in Gaza.
According to Anadolu Agency, Trump's visit is occurring amidst increasing tensions with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The US administration's frustration with Netanyahu's resistance to aligning with Washington's strategic vision for the region is reportedly growing. The Jerusalem Post, citing a Gulf diplomatic source, suggests that Trump may announce a declaration recognizing a Palestinian state, excluding Hamas, which would signify a major shift in US policy.
Unconfirmed reports indicate that Trump's meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh might also include Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. Trump has also mentioned a potential visit to Trkiye for a meeting between Russian and Ukrainian leaders in Istanbul.
Analysts expect Trump's agenda to address numerous regional and global issues, including trade, investment, AI, the war in Ukraine, Red Sea security, Gaza, Syria, and the Iranian nuclear deal. Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics, highlights the significance of this trip, noting the inclusion of Doha and Abu Dhabi alongside Riyadh, reflecting Qatar and the UAE's growing influence.
The future of the Iranian nuclear deal is anticipated to be a primary topic during Trump's discussions. Annelle Sheline, a research fellow at the Quincy Institute, notes the changing regional dynamics since 2017, with the GCC now more focused on diplomacy with Iran and economic development. Sheline emphasizes the GCC's support for reducing tensions and reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, comments on the implications of Trump's stance on Iran's nuclear capacity, which could affect US engagements with Gulf states. The desire of these states to develop civilian nuclear programs presents a challenge if the US recognizes Iran's enrichment rights while potentially denying the same to its Arab partners.
The expansion of the Abraham Accords is another focal point, with speculation about potential announcements. However, analysts like Sheline and Cafiero remain skeptical about Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel without the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Beyond diplomacy, Trump's visit is expected to focus on trade and defense cooperation. Kristin Diwan, a senior scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, anticipates an emphasis on commercial partnerships in strategic sectors. Reports suggest a $3.5 billion missile sale to Saudi Arabia is already approved, with a larger arms package possibly unveiled during the trip.
An investment forum in Riyadh coinciding with Trump's visit will feature prominent business leaders, highlighting the economic dimension of the tour. Sheline cautions that any new defense agreements must align with Trump's 'America First' stance, advising against open-ended security commitments that do not serve US interests.