Washington: President Donald Trump's decision to impose additional tariffs on India has introduced an unprecedented level of turbulence in the strategic US-India relations, according to experts. Traditionally viewed as a pivotal counterbalance against China's growing influence, this bilateral relationship is now facing significant challenges due to recent trade policies.
According to Anadolu Agency, Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on India as a penalty for importing Russian oil, raising the total tariff to 50%. This places India among the countries with the highest US-imposed duties globally. The move marks a stark shift from Trump's previous term, unveiling underlying frictions that were previously overshadowed by India's efforts to strengthen ties with Washington in response to China's expanding influence in the Asia-Pacific region.
The tensions escalated after Trump accused India of 'unfair' trade practices, particularly criticizing high tariffs and urging India to open its agricultural and dairy markets. India, however, resisted these demands, citing the political sensitivity of these sectors in the predominantly agrarian country. While Trump continues to push for new trade agreements with allies and rivals, negotiations with India remain stalled, frustrating the US president, whose 'America First' campaign focuses on revitalizing the US economy.
Sourabh Gupta, a strategic policy specialist at the Institute for China-America Studies, explained that Trump's primary focus in his second presidency is on trade issues, specifically reducing trade deficits and reshoring industry back to the US. Bilateral trade between the US and India exceeded $190 billion last year, yet the US faces a trade deficit of around $45 billion with India. Additional tariffs and penalties for India's purchases of Russian oil and defense equipment have further strained relations.
India has reminded the US of its previous encouragement to continue Russian oil imports amidst disrupted supply chains due to sanctions on Moscow. Historical ties with Iran and Russia, which have been nurtured over decades, also complicate the situation. Praveen Donthi, a senior India analyst at the International Crisis Group, noted that Trump is leveraging India's historic relations with Moscow to justify his actions, which he sees as a tactical move to pressure India into accepting tariff terms.
Despite these tensions, experts believe the underlying structures of US-India relations remain stable. Gupta noted that while there is some turbulence at the leadership level, the relationship is well anchored at the senior officials' level. Harsh V Pant, a professor at King's College London, suggested that short-term turbulence is inevitable until a trade deal is reached but asserted that the strategic direction remains unaffected as it is based on structural realities in the Indo-Pacific region.
Trump's approach appears to have inadvertently accelerated warming relations between New Delhi and Beijing. Ali Wyne, a senior advisor for US-China relations at the International Crisis Group, suggested that Trump's actions have disrupted the longstanding momentum in US-India ties and indicated a willingness to reset US-China relations rather than advance US-India relations.
Despite these challenges, experts maintain that this turbulence will not permanently affect US-India relations. Both countries have strengthened ties over the past two decades and are expected to continue on this path despite current hiccups and trust deficits. As Gupta concluded, India will not abandon its relations with Russia entirely but will make concessions due to US and EU sanctions.