Istanbul: The escalating US-Israeli military confrontation with Iran risks turning into a prolonged conflict with global economic and security consequences, according to an expert. Ali Vaez, Iran project director and senior adviser at the International Crisis Group, warned that military pressure on Iran is unlikely to produce a sustainable outcome, arguing that diplomatic failures and growing mistrust have pushed Washington toward a conflict with no clear exit.
According to Anadolu Agency, Vaez spoke on the sidelines of the STRATCOM Summit 2026 in Istanbul, highlighting the impact of US President Donald Trump's negotiating strategy on the collapse of diplomacy with Tehran. Vaez noted that pressure-first tactics made compromise unlikely, and that Trump surrounded himself with negotiators who did not share his interest in reaching a serious agreement. This approach, Vaez argued, effectively doomed negotiations during Trump's terms and eroded trust, complicating future diplomacy efforts under then-President Joe Biden in 2021-2022.
Vaez pointed out that Trump now faces two difficult paths: de-escalation or further military expansion. Exiting the conflict would require acknowledging the persistence of Iran's government and its enriched uranium stockpile, as well as Tehran's influence over key strategic routes. On the other hand, escalation risks deeper entanglement and regional retaliation, with potential global economic repercussions.
The expert emphasized that military action cannot eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities, as the knowledge and science behind it cannot simply be destroyed. Strikes may temporarily degrade capabilities, but could also strengthen Iran's motivation to pursue nuclear weapons. Vaez also highlighted the ongoing resilience of Iran's missile program despite previous claims of destruction.
Gulf countries find themselves caught between reliance on US security guarantees and geographic proximity to Iran. Vaez argued that these states cannot easily replace US defense infrastructure, leaving them at a strategic impasse. He further suggested that neither side in the conflict has achieved a decisive victory, with the prolonged war raising costs and risks globally.
Vaez discussed Israel's broader strategic objectives, suggesting that its aim may extend beyond regime change to ensuring that Iran becomes a failed state unable to challenge Israel's regional dominance. He pointed to strikes on universities and civilian infrastructure as evidence of efforts to weaken Iran internally.
The conflict could undermine the global Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Vaez warned, as it sets a concerning precedent of nuclear-armed states attacking a non-nuclear member of the NPT. He expressed concern that this could encourage Iran to pursue nuclear weapons, becoming the world's 10th nuclear-armed state, and thereby weakening the global non-proliferation regime.
Vaez concluded that the conflict risks accelerating nuclear proliferation globally, as other countries may view weapons of mass destruction as a means of protection. He noted the potential influence of the conflict on countries like North Korea, which may avoid nuclear negotiations, and on US allies reassessing their security dependence, citing Gulf states and South Korea.