Washington: A decade after the historic Paris Agreement was adopted, the world remains significantly off track to meet its 2030 climate targets. The year 2025 has witnessed the United States, once again, withdrawing from the agreement, marking it as the only country to formally exit the accord.
According to Anadolu Agency, the Paris Agreement, signed by 195 countries in December 2015, aimed to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, ideally 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and achieve global net-zero emissions in the latter half of this century. Iran, Libya, Yemen, and Eritrea had initially refused to join the accord, and with the latest decision, the U.S. stands alone in its formal withdrawal.
Despite the agreement's success in elevating climate change to a top global political agenda and prompting many countries to implement emission-reduction policies, the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) remain insufficient. Key barriers, such as political uncertainty, reliance on fossil fuels, lack of funding, and economic concerns persist, hindering progress toward the agreement's temperature goals.
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) recently released its Emissions Gap Report 2024, highlighting that countries must reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035. Failure to meet these targets would make the Paris Agreement's 1.5 degrees Celsius goal unattainable within a few years.
Global carbon emissions have continued to rise, reaching record highs in 2023 and 2024. The Global Carbon Project reports that fossil fuel CO2 emissions climbed to 36.8 billion tons in 2023, experiencing a 1.1% increase from the previous year, and further increased to 37.4 billion tons in 2024, a 0.8% rise driven by ongoing coal, oil, and gas reliance.
The return of U.S. President Donald Trump, known for his skepticism of climate change, has intensified global concerns. On his inauguration day, January 20, 2025, Trump announced the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, reversing the Biden administration's decision to rejoin in 2021. He declared a 'National Energy Emergency' to expedite domestic fossil fuel production and reinstated plastic straws, citing alleged harmful chemicals in paper alternatives. Furthermore, climate-related foreign aid through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) was halted, accompanied by funding cuts and layoffs at key U.S. institutions involved in climate science and policy.
The role of industry in achieving Paris targets was a focal point at COP30 in Belem, Brazil, in November 2025, where "green industrialization" was emphasized. Thirty-five countries and several international organizations signed the Belem Declaration on Global Green Industrialization, providing a framework for developing economies to adopt green industrial strategies, decarbonize heavy industry, and accelerate clean technology innovation while creating jobs.
Building on the outcomes of COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, in 2024, where a new climate finance target of at least $300 billion per year by 2035 was set, COP30 advanced the Baku to Belem roadmap, aiming to increase total climate finance to $1.3 trillion annually by 2035. Despite these advancements, the Baku finance outcome faced criticism for being insufficient, and neither President Trump nor Chinese President Xi Jinping attended the summit.
On a positive note, COP29 successfully operationalized carbon markets after nearly a decade, facilitating international carbon trading and attracting additional private investments for green industrial projects.
The upcoming COP31, scheduled to be held in Trkiye in 2026, will gather nearly 200 countries to discuss the next phase of the Paris Agreement implementation. This includes new and updated emission-reduction targets, adaptation measures, climate finance, and the implementation of carbon-market rules. Hosting COP31 will significantly enhance Trkiye's profile in global climate diplomacy, as previous conferences have been held in countries like Germany, Japan, Denmark, France, the UK, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan, and Brazil.