Berlin: The area affected by wildfires in Europe could nearly triple by the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario as climate change brings hotter, drier, and windier conditions, according to a study led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

According to Anadolu Agency, the study suggests that the annual burned area could increase by around 39% under a low-emissions scenario and by about 192% under a high-emissions scenario during the period 2070-2100, compared with the average from 2000-2030. The research, published in Global Change Biology with contributions from the Frankfurt-based Senckenberg Society for Nature Research, emphasizes the importance of emissions cuts and stronger fire prevention, early detection, and firefighting measures.

"Climate change is driving up fire activity across Europe as hot, dry and windy conditions become more severe," said Maik Billing, a researcher at the institute and lead author of the study. Billing noted that burned areas could increase widely even with warming around 1.8C (3.24F), while a rise of roughly 3.6C (6.48F) could make fires much more prevalent, particularly around the Mediterranean and in Western and Central Europe, including areas that have historically experienced fewer fires.

The study underscores the need for investment in managing rising fire risks. Improved fire prevention, early detection, and firefighting could reduce burned areas by 92% under 1.8C warming and by 72% under roughly 3.6C warming, although the authors caution that these estimates may be optimistic in a much warmer climate. "We see fire conditions are increasing, so we need to invest more," said Thomas Hickler, a Senckenberg scientist and co-author of the study. Hickler highlighted the importance of greater investment in firefighter training, equipment, and coordination but warned that extremely severe fires could eventually exceed firefighting capacity.

Europe is currently facing another severe wildfire season, with around 550,000 hectares burned across the European Union as of August 12, about 2.5 times the 20-year average for this time of year, according to the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS). "The fires in France, Spain, and Greece show how quickly hot, dry and windy weather conditions can stretch firefighters and their resources," said Kirsten Thonicke, a scientist at the Potsdam Institute and co-author of the study. Thonicke stressed that climate change could push fire conditions beyond the limits of existing prevention and firefighting capabilities, making emissions reductions essential alongside stronger local fire management.