Washington:Global commodity prices are anticipated to increase by 23% in 2026, reaching their second-highest level since 2013. This surge is attributed to the Middle East conflict, disruptions in Black Sea shipping, and adverse weather events, as reported by the World Bank.

According to Anadolu Agency – English, the World Bank's October 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook report indicates that commodity prices could decrease by 7% in 2027 and 8.8% in 2028 as supply issues begin to ease. Energy prices are projected to rise 32% this year but are expected to drop by 11.5% in 2027, reflecting upward adjustments from earlier predictions.

Global oil supply is forecasted to decline by 5.5 million barrels per day in 2026, marking the most significant reduction in over 40 years, excluding the 2020 pandemic. Brent crude oil prices are expected to average $91 per barrel in 2026, up from $69 in 2025, before gradually decreasing to $79 in 2027 and $70 in 2028.

The report also highlights a projected 58.3% increase in European natural gas prices in 2026, influenced by reduced liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Food commodity prices are anticipated to rise 10.3% in 2026, driven by elevated energy costs, Black Sea shipping disruptions, and a strong El Nino weather pattern.

Grain prices are set to increase by 14.1% in 2026, with wheat prices alone expected to jump by 28% as global output contracts by 3%. Meanwhile, beverage prices are projected to fall by 23.9% in 2026 due to recovery in coffee and cocoa production.

The metals and minerals price index is predicted to reach a record high in 2026, spurred by supply constraints and strong demand from renewable energy sectors. Precious metal prices are expected to see a 39.9% rise in 2026, driven by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions.

In an adverse scenario involving escalations in the Middle East conflict and severe El Nino crop losses, Brent crude could average $105 per barrel in 2027, significantly impacting global inflation and food security. The World Bank Group has allocated $50 billion to $60 billion to help countries manage the economic impacts, with $8.7 billion already disbursed to 25 nations.