Ankara: From a real estate merchant to the US president, Donald Trump entered the political arena in 2016 with swift success, stunning local and international observers. His first election victory was highly improbable according to opinion in the US, given the overwhelming reality that candidates with no government or military experience had ever been chosen. President Donald Trump's first tenure was equally unconventional, and he put his stamp on history by facing two impeachment trials for abuse of power - and escaping unscathed. This time around, however, the president's triumph did not surprise many. His new term is expected to be met with less resistance, as his party has won both chambers of Congress-the House of Representatives and the Senate.
According to Anadolu Agency, Trump's full control of Washington could have significant implications for Africa in general, and Trkiye-Africa relations in particular. The focus on China as a primary foreign policy target suggests that Trump's administration will adopt a hardline stance on the country. This strategic posture is expected to generate tensions over trade, technology, and geopolitical issues, with Africa potentially caught in the crossfire. China views Africa as a critical base to extend its global influence, and any US efforts to contain China could see Beijing deepening its ties in Africa, potentially impacting Turkish interests and investments in the region.
The competition between China and the US will present various challenges for African states, necessitating economic preparedness. While China's steadfast Africa policy might limit foreign actors, including Turkish firms, new market conditions could also create opportunities. Trkiye's trade relations with African countries have seen significant growth, increasing nearly eight-fold over the past 20 years, which might see shifts under Trump's new policies.
Foreign aid is another area of concern for Trkiye-Africa relations during Trump's second term. Africa receives a substantial portion of US humanitarian assistance, with around 70% allocated to health programs. Trump's previous term saw significant cuts to the US Agency for International Development, and a similar reduction, potentially by 30%, is expected in his second term. This could disrupt crucial health programs in Africa, providing Trkiye with an opportunity to enhance its role as an emerging donor through its Turkish-type development assistance model, though at a potential economic cost.
Trump's second term could also lead to political tensions in Africa, influenced by the Israel-Palestine conflict and regional geopolitics. Trump's approach could align with Gulf countries, prioritizing relations with certain African nations in exchange for improved ties with Israel. Meanwhile, the Trkiye-led Somalia-Ethiopia Ankara Declaration aims to foster regional alliances, challenging Trump's earlier political strategies.
On the military front, Trump's previous disengagement from Africa, such as the withdrawal of American troops from Somalia, leaves a vacuum that Russia might exploit. This could offer Trkiye and Russia new military engagement opportunities across the continent, particularly addressing challenges in the Sahel region.
Overall, the dynamic competition between the US, China, and Russia in Africa presents both opportunities and challenges for Trkiye. The extent of these opportunities will largely depend on how effectively Trkiye applies its political, military, and humanitarian strategies.