Washington: The US and the EU may unite to form a tariff alliance against China through negotiations, a Brussels-based trade analyst told Anadolu. Johann Weick emphasized that the United States aims to bring manufacturing jobs back to its soil, though he cautioned that President Donald Trump's tariffs might lead to increased consumer prices.
According to Anadolu Agency, Weick pointed out that firms seek predictability from administrations when investing, drawing parallels with the 1930s trade protectionism and the subsequent Wall Street Crash. Despite Trump's assertion that tariffs create an attractive environment, Weick highlighted the EU's vulnerabilities, such as missing hydrocarbon energy resources and lacking a strong military component. Moreover, the EU's willingness to purchase more energy products does not fully align with Trump's expectations, as the bloc has limited options to counter US tariffs.
Weick elaborated that Trump is considering forming a geostrategic security alliance with Europe against China, using a temporary 90-day tariff pause as a bargaining tactic. He noted Trump's history of negotiations, especially in real estate, suggesting that the EU might benefit from technical-level discussions rather than direct head-of-state interactions. He also remarked on the fragmented appearance of Europe, citing bilateral talks between France, Italy, and Washington, which potentially strengthen Trump's position.
Weick underscored the geopolitical shifts, stating that both Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin share an agenda that aims to prevent a self-assertive Europe from emerging between the US and Russia. He noted that the EU's indecision on retaliating against Trump's tariffs signaled openness to negotiations, potentially paving the way for a US-EU alliance against China to tackle tariff-related challenges. Weick asserted that Trump seeks to prevent an economically and militarily dominant China.
He further mentioned that Trump is determined to achieve his trade objectives and predicted that the trade dispute between the EU and the US will eventually be resolved due to their long-standing relationship. Amidst the shifting trade dynamics, China might explore alternatives, including focusing on Europe and engaging in price-dumping strategies.
In the meantime, EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic is in Washington, engaging with senior officials like Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. The trade dynamics show that US exports to the EU reached $602.8 billion, while imports totaled $378.1 billion, resulting in a $224.7 billion trade surplus for the EU. Trump's dissatisfaction with the trade deficit has prompted him to demand that the EU purchase more US energy products to avoid tariffs.
Despite the EU becoming the largest buyer of US liquefied natural gas over the last three years, Trump remains unsatisfied, believing the EU can increase its energy imports to reach $350 billion. EU officials are currently negotiating with the White House to reach an agreement on fossil fuels during the 90-day tariff pause.