Alaska: When Vladimir Putin meets Donald Trump in Alaska on Friday, their presidential summit is set to be the most high-profile US-Russia engagement since before the Ukraine war. Experts suggest that this meeting could be a strategic opportunity for Moscow.
According to Anadolu Agency, the Kremlin views the summit as a platform to directly present its demands to Washington, particularly regarding control over occupied Ukrainian territories and obtaining security guarantees that could significantly alter Kyiv's future. The mere occurrence of this meeting, especially if Russia continues its military actions, could be used by Moscow to demonstrate its ability to withstand and outmaneuver the United States, according to Mikhail Alexseev, a political science professor at San Diego State University. Alexseev further stated that Russia hopes to showcase America's perceived weaknesses, potentially diminishing US influence globally.
Eugene Chausovsky, a senior analyst at the New Lines Institute, highlighted the broader importance of the meeting. This will mark the first direct meeting between Trump and Putin and the first meeting of any US president with Putin in over four years, since before the full-scale conflict in Ukraine began.
Oleg Ignatov, a senior analyst for Russia at the International Crisis Group, mentioned that Moscow will concentrate on two main priorities: territorial control and security. He explained that while Ukraine seeks its territories and security guarantees, Russia desires a neutral and less militarized Ukraine. Putin is expected to push for recognition of Crimea and the establishment of a land corridor to it. Chausovsky added that Ukraine's neutrality and the reduction of NATO membership prospects would be central discussion points, noting that the Trump administration has already started distancing itself from previous policies that contradicted this goal.
Chausovsky also noted that Russia will advocate for decreased Western, US, and EU military and financial aid to Kyiv, alongside concessions on the four Ukrainian regions annexed in late 2022: Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia. Furthermore, Moscow is anticipated to seek relief from economic sanctions, which, according to Chausovsky, could have significant economic repercussions for countries like India and potentially China, if secondary tariffs are imposed for importing Russian oil.
Analysts indicate that while all parties desire guarantees that the war will not resume, achieving compromise remains challenging. Alexseev expressed that Russia is unlikely to alter its demands for Ukraine to cede occupied territories, for international recognition of these territorial gains, and for Ukraine to relinquish its right to decide on its military power and alliances. Putin's ideal outcome would involve acknowledging Trump's ceasefire proposal while securing commitments for sanctions relief and the resumption of economic ties.
Ignatov questioned how Washington will coordinate with Ukraine and Europe and whether allies will accept any agreements from the Alaska meeting. He suggested that a subsequent meeting involving Trump, Putin, and Zelensky could follow a successful summit, leading to further negotiation stages. However, Ignatov warned of potential breakdowns due to mistrust among the parties, while still acknowledging the possibility of reaching compromises.
Chausovsky noted that both Trump and Zelensky have shown willingness for a meeting, but the Russian side remains hesitant, preferring to delay until a ceasefire agreement or a framework deal is in place.