London: US President Donald Trump's recent assertion that the United States is attempting to regain control of the Bagram Air Base from the Taliban in Afghanistan is fraught with challenges for both nations, raising concerns about potential destabilization of the current regime in Kabul.
According to Anadolu Agency, experts have highlighted the complexities of Trump's statement made during a press conference in the UK alongside British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Trump, who signed the Doha deal with the Taliban in February 2020 during his first term, has been vocal in criticizing his successor, Joe Biden, for the swift withdrawal of US forces, leaving behind a power vacuum filled by the Taliban.
The Bagram Airfield, a strategic location initially constructed by Soviet forces, is currently under Taliban control and situated near Kabul. Taliban officials have expressed a willingness to maintain positive relations with the US but remain firm against any foreign military presence, as highlighted by Suhail Shaheen, the Taliban's designated ambassador to the UN.
Experts such as Ibraheem Bahiss from Crisis Group International and former Pakistani ambassador Mansoor Ahmad Khan have expressed skepticism about the feasibility of Trump's plans, citing historical Afghan resistance to foreign military occupations and the potential for internal Taliban conflict if such a deal were pursued.
In Islamabad, Pakistan Foreign Ministry spokesperson Shafqat Ali Khan chose not to comment on Trump's ambition, emphasizing the issue as primarily between Afghanistan and the United States.
Ahmed-Waleed Kakar, an Afghan analyst, noted that the Taliban's current control over Bagram has been a point of contention for Trump, who has shown interest in negotiating a return. However, any deal perceived as compromising Afghan sovereignty is unlikely given the Taliban's nationalist and religious stance.
The geopolitical implications of Trump's move also threaten to disrupt the Taliban's diplomatic engagements with countries like Russia and China, which have recognized the Taliban's governance since their return to power in August 2021. Bahiss noted the potential for undermining these relationships, which are crucial for the Taliban's quest for international legitimacy and access to frozen financial assets.
Despite the US's strategic interest in counterbalancing Chinese and Russian influence in the region, as well as exploring economic opportunities, the likelihood of the Taliban agreeing to a US military return to Bagram remains slim. The internal and external pressures faced by the Taliban, including expectations related to human rights and governance, pose significant barriers to any such arrangement.
Ultimately, Trump's proposal, while indicative of a strategic interest in Afghanistan's geopolitical landscape, encounters formidable obstacles in the form of historical resistance, international diplomatic dynamics, and the Taliban's stringent stance on foreign military presence.