Washington: The US is facing challenges in maintaining its economic influence in Africa following a decade marked by fluctuating relations, with bilateral trade continuing to account for only a 'symbolic share' of overall US trade, according to an academic analysis.
According to Anadolu Agency, Yunus Turhan, an associate professor of international relations at Ankara Haci Bayram Veli University, noted that US-Africa trade has experienced sharp fluctuations between 2014 and 2025, based on data from the US Census Bureau. Turhan highlighted that US exports to Africa were $38 billion, with imports at $34.6 billion in 2014, resulting in a trade surplus, but this shifted the following year as exports decreased to $27.1 billion and imports to $25.3 billion. The trend continued with exports dropping to $22.2 billion in 2016, while imports increased to $26.5 billion.
Turhan explained that exports remained stable in 2017 at approximately $22 billion, whereas imports increased to $33.4 billion, driven by heightened energy and raw material purchases. By 2018, US exports reached $26 billion, with imports hitting a record $35 billion, widening the trade deficit. Although imports decreased to $30.1 billion in 2019, exports remained largely unchanged.
During the global pandemic in 2020, exports fell to $21.9 billion, with imports decreasing to $23.7 billion. A recovery followed in 2021, with exports rising to $27.7 billion and imports to $37.6 billion. Turhan stated that imports peaked at $41.7 billion in 2022, with exports and imports fluctuating in the subsequent years. By November 2025, exports had reached $34 billion, while imports had eased to $37.8 billion.
US-Africa trade has averaged between $70-80 billion annually over the past decade, according to Turhan. He expressed that Africa's contribution to US trade is minimal, noting that in 2024, Africa's share in the $7.37 trillion US trade volume was roughly 1.1%, indicating that the trade remains at a symbolic level.
Turhan acknowledged the role of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which has significantly contributed to trade since 2000 by allowing 32 African countries to export more than 1,800 products duty-free to the US. US exports to Africa totaled about $500 billion between 2002 and 2022 under the program, with the US House of Representatives recently passing a bill to extend AGOA for an additional three years.
Furthermore, Turhan mentioned that both African leaders and the Trump administration aimed to move beyond foreign aid relations towards a model focused on trade and investment. He observed that US-Africa trade heavily concentrates on oil, with trade increasing by 86% during the AGOA period, compared to a 168% rise in overall US global trade.
The US faces global competition with China and Russia in Africa. Turhan noted China's trade with Africa reached $314 billion in 2025, up 17.8% year-on-year, while Russia-Africa trade was limited to $24.5 billion in 2024. He emphasized that China and Russia cooperate on African issues at the United Nations, which poses a challenge for the US as their expanding economic and security engagements are not what Washington desires.
Turhan suggested that the US should seek closer cooperation with partners such as Trkiye as competition with China and Russia intensifies. He mentioned that Washington aims to balance development goals with strategic rivalry in its Africa policy, with the Biden administration framing Africa as an equal development partner rather than an aid recipient. In contrast, the Obama administration emphasized institutional cooperation, and the first Trump administration deprioritized the continent entirely.