Moscow: Active hostilities in the Russia-Ukraine war mark their fourth anniversary amid US-led peace efforts that could potentially see an end to the fighting this year. However, experts suggest a comprehensive settlement may take longer.
According to Anadolu Agency, US President Donald Trump has expressed confidence that he could end the conflict, which began on February 24, 2022, within 24 hours of returning to the White House. Despite numerous meetings and discussions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, as well as European partners, the fighting continues. Since early 2026, three rounds of US-mediated peace talks have taken place between Moscow and Kyiv, with the initial two in Abu Dhabi and the third in Geneva. Progress has been limited, except for a prisoner exchange, particularly concerning territorial concessions, which remain a significant obstacle.
US envoy Steve Witkoff, leading Washington's delegation, described the talks as having made 'meaningful progress,' with another round anticipated by the end of the month. Andrey Kortunov, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, noted the substantial changes in European security architecture triggered by the war and suggested that while a cessation of hostilities is feasible by year-end, a comprehensive settlement will take more time.
Kortunov emphasized that political will from both sides and 'favorable external conditions' could potentially bring an end to the active phase of the conflict by the end of this year. However, he argued that a final settlement would require creating a new European security system, essentially decoupling from US defense dependence. He highlighted the need for involvement from leading European countries, suggesting that reaching an agreement will be a protracted process, unlikely to conclude within months.
Kortunov viewed the Geneva peace negotiations positively, indicating a decision to hold another round of talks soon. This signifies both sides' commitment to dialogue and their view that discussions in Geneva are neither useless nor harmful.
Simon Schlegel, program director for Ukraine at the Center for Liberal Modernity in Berlin, also predicted that reaching a settlement will take longer than this year. He argued that the war's end would likely occur when one party loses the capability to continue fighting, but neither side is near that point. Schlegel noted that Kyiv is currently less inclined to cease fighting than a year ago, as Ukraine has addressed significant military personnel issues and maintained its defensive lines with European support.
Schlegel further explained that Ukraine has managed to sustain basic military supplies despite the withdrawal of US military aid, allowing it to defend and hold the front line, albeit not offensively. He believes no amount of US pressure can now alter the balance in Ukraine's determination to continue the fight.
Regarding Russia, Schlegel suggested that the country is somewhat closer to ceasing hostilities than a year ago, but it remains capable of sustaining the war economically and militarily. Despite signs of weakness in Russia's economy, Schlegel claimed it is unlikely to collapse and can continue supporting the war effort. Russia's ability to recruit and replace soldiers, despite costly infantry assaults, indicates its readiness to persist in the conflict.