Washington: Five days into the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, attention has shifted from the intensity of strikes to how long each side can sustain the war effort. Beneath the waves of missiles and airstrikes lies a crucial calculation involving stockpiles, air defenses, and political will, which will determine the duration of this campaign.
According to Anadolu Agency, US President Donald Trump has suggested that the operation could last 'four to five weeks' or longer. However, analysts argue that the timeline will ultimately be dictated by military inventories, economic pressures, and each side's willingness to absorb losses. Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the RANE Network, noted that historical precedent suggests the conflict may not last indefinitely. He pointed out that the longest previous US air campaign was against Serbia in 1999, lasting about 90 days. Bohl believes this conflict could be much shorter due to a lack of political will in America.
The US has mobilized significant military resources for the operation. According to US Central Command (CENTCOM), over 50,000 troops, 200 fighter jets, and two aircraft carriers have been deployed. CENTCOM head Adm. Brad Cooper reported that US and Israeli forces have struck nearly 2,000 targets across Iran using over 2,000 munitions. Despite concerns about missile stock depletion, President Trump has assured that US supplies of mid- and high-grade munitions remain robust. The US arsenal includes a range of advanced aircraft and missile defense systems, though analysts warn that interceptor inventories could become a constraint if the conflict intensifies.
Iran, on the other hand, is heavily relying on ballistic missiles and drones. CENTCOM reports that Tehran has launched more than 500 ballistic missiles and over 2,000 drones in retaliatory strikes. Among these are the Shahed-136 drones, which are cost-effective and have a significant range. Analysts estimate that Iran's shorter-range missile inventories remain relatively strong, with several weeks' worth of missiles available. Iran's ability to sustain its attacks may be bolstered by the relatively low cost of its weaponry.
Israel has also been engaging in extensive air operations and relies heavily on its sophisticated air defense systems to intercept incoming threats. The Israeli Air Force has already dropped over 4,000 munitions on Iranian targets. Israel's defensive network, which includes the Iron Dome, David's Sling, and Arrow systems, is designed to counter various missile threats. While Israel does not disclose information on its supplies, analysts believe it has sufficient interceptor stocks to continue operations for now.
The Times of Israel reported that Israel's military is planning for at least one or two more weeks of operations in Iran. However, the potential involvement of Hezbollah and the shifting focus towards Lebanon could test Israel's air defense capabilities. If coordination between Hezbollah and Iran proves effective, it may challenge Israel's ability to defend against coordinated attacks.