Dubai: International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings announced that the economic impact of a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz would vary among Middle Eastern countries. Most countries in the region, however, would likely manage to absorb the shock within their current credit rating levels.

According to Anadolu Agency, Fitch Ratings based its projections on the assumption that the waterway would be effectively closed for less than a month, with no significant damage to energy production or transport infrastructure. Under this scenario, the closure would affect countries in the region to differing extents. Nevertheless, existing fiscal buffers and economic structures suggest that the impact would remain manageable within current sovereign rating frameworks.

The report highlights that, except for Oman, members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, along with Iraq, export the majority of their hydrocarbons through the Strait of Hormuz. Specifically, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar ship between 87% and 95% of their exports through this strategic passage. Iraq and Qatar have already halted a significant portion of their production.

Based on 2025 shipment data through the strait and assuming an oil price of $85 per barrel during the disruption, Fitch estimated that each week of closure could reduce hydrocarbon export revenues for the four countries by 0.4% of their GDP. The agency noted that part of the loss could be mitigated by selling stored hydrocarbons, although fully offsetting the revenue shortfall would be challenging.