Nairobi: The widening US-Israel war with Iran is reverberating far beyond the Middle East, with Africa increasingly exposed to the geopolitical and economic fallout as maritime disruptions, security risks, and shifting alliances reshape the continent's strategic landscape. From the shipping lanes around the Bab al-Mandab strait to rising tensions in the Horn of Africa, governments are being forced to navigate a crisis that is driving up energy costs, disrupting trade routes, and intensifying competition among global powers.
According to Anadolu Agency, the spillover is already visible with growing threats from Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group, which are constricting traffic through the Bab al-Mandab strait. This critical chokepoint between Yemen and Djibouti connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and carries up to 12% of global trade and millions of barrels of oil per day. The waterway has become even more important following Iran's disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, emerging as one of the few remaining routes for Persian Gulf oil exports.
Last week, the Iran-aligned Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi declared the group's readiness for all developments in the battle and expressed support for Tehran. Any closure of the strait risks escalating tensions in the Red Sea, where the US operates its only permanent African military base at Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti.
Beyond security risks, the war is also diverting global attention away from conflicts across Africa that are already exacting a heavy humanitarian toll. Kinkoh, a fellow at Chatham House, mentioned that the escalating theater in the Gulf is effectively 'silencing' the war in Sudan, starving it of the diplomatic focus needed for peace. According to UN data, over 11,000 civilians were killed last year, around 13 million have been displaced, and about 21 million people face acute food insecurity.
African economies are struggling to absorb the ripple effects of global instability. Disruptions in Red Sea trade routes are increasing shipping costs and straining supply chains, while Egypt's loss of gas supplies highlights how a regional conflict can quickly evolve into an energy crisis. Maritime disruption in the Red Sea and Suez is no longer a mere logistical headache but a direct threat to African sovereign stability.
Kinkoh noted that disruptions to energy and fertilizer flows are driving up food and fuel prices, intensifying pressure on already vulnerable populations. In a region where economic frustration is already at a breaking point, these supply-chain shocks are acting as potent political accelerants, turning global maritime friction into immediate triggers for social volatility.
Africa's energy landscape reflects a deeper structural vulnerability. Despite producing roughly 7.5 million barrels of crude oil per day, Africa only refines about a quarter of its oil domestically and imports most of its refined products. For Africa's oil giants, record-high crude prices are a deceptive windfall as the revenue gains from crude are immediately cannibalized by the soaring costs of gasoline and diesel.
In East Africa, rerouted shipping around the Cape of Good Hope is pushing up logistics costs, with Kenya already signaling possible price hikes that have become politically sensitive. In Egypt, authorities have introduced measures to reduce electricity consumption, including early business closures and expanded remote work, as pressure on the energy system grows.
African countries have responded cautiously to the escalation, with many echoing the African Union's calls for de-escalation or avoiding firm positions altogether. While East African countries have generally condemned Iran's retaliatory strikes on Gulf states, Somalia and Sudan notably omitted the UAE from their expressions of solidarity, reflecting strained relations with the country over regional issues.
The war, alongside the conflict in Ukraine, is pulling Africa deeper into a shifting global order, where major powers are competing for influence across strategic corridors. Kinkoh pointed to Israel's engagement with Somaliland as an example of how external actors are seeking footholds in strategically important locations. Iran's influence in Africa has grown steadily since the early 2020s, fueled by the security vacuums created by coups in the Sahel and Sudan's civil war. Through a mix of diplomacy, trade, and military cooperation, Tehran has sought to build long-term influence while strengthening its strategic presence along key maritime routes.
As Iran attempts to project power toward the Red Sea, it is colliding with a wall of surging engagement from the US, Israel, and the Gulf states. This competitive pressure is redrawing the map of Africa's geopolitical landscape.